Setup:
I'd like to thank NASA for indirectly sponsoring this blog post. I had some time to do some writing early this week while I was waiting to watch the Orion test launch. We had a great 2 hours of Survivor this week to follow-up after Wes was voted out last week with 2 votes due to idols being played by both Jon and Keith. Reed and Alec show their displeasure with Keith ruining the plan by mentioning there was a plan. He doesn't see any problem because "how could they know what the plan was?" Reed and Alec are right. Just the fact that there was a plan he knew of and the others didn't means trouble if you're the others.
Reward Challenge #1:
Time for a traditional pecking-order revealing challenge. Questions are asked about people who made the merge this season. Get a question right and you get to chop someone's rope. 3 chops to a rope releases a rock that crushes a skull and removes you from the challenge. No surprise at all that Alec, Reed, and Keith are the 1st three out of the challenge, and it happened quick because the 1st 2 questions were well known to the remaining cast.
Question 1 - Who, other than Natalie, has a twin? Only Keith (and most of the viewing audience) didn't know it was Jeremy. Keith guessed Jaclyn (Jax in his writing). Why her? My guess is that he just hoped that of all people she would have a twin. Sorry Keith, but if Jaclyn had a twin you can bet they would be out here playing together to help out ratings. Anyway, Reed is knocked out quick and Alec starts taking hits.
Question 2 - Who owns and operates their own tanning salon? Everyone gets this one right, including me. It's Julie, the quitter. This round is enough to knock out Alec and Keith, although the cool effect of the red gel packet exploding when the skull is crushed didn't happen for Alec because the falling rock made a glancing blow and the skull just rolled off the stand. But now the 5 must turn on each other. Natalie again asks Jon who she should hit. A big discussion begins amongst the remaining contestants. Jeff asks if this is how the challenge is going to go - will they just put on a show to get to the winner they all decide on? They say yes. Jeff says they can just choose their winner and skip the show. They agree and decide that Missy wins.
Pecking Order Safe, Or Is It?:
The 5 avoid having to knock each other out of the challenge, so peace is kept. Jon even volunteers to go to Exile Island, avoiding any conflict there. But now Missy gets to choose 2 people to join her for the reward, which is an afternoon horseback ride culminating in barbeque and brownies at a resort where they will stay until morning. Missy chooses Baylor first and nobody is surprised. Now she must choose between Alec, Keith, Reed, Natalie, and Jaclyn, so it's really a choice between Natalie and Jaclyn. She decides to take Natalie. Jaclyn looks visibly upset. Jeff notices. The bottom 3 guys instantly play up to it being very telling. So the pecking order disclosure still ends up happening just a little later than expected. I'll revisit this in What-If #1 at the end.
Post Reward Challenge Rundown:
Jon goes to Exile. He gets a clue to a new idol. He goes out looking along the shore near any horizontal trees and fairly quickly adds an immunity idol to his possessions. He's thrilled to have some security back.
Reed, Alec, and Keith act nicer to Jaclyn than they ever have before. She notices and she's taking nicely to it since she got snubbed on the reward after Jon 'sacrificed' himself to go to Exile. They work to convince her that Missy, Baylor, and Natalie will be the final three unless something gets changed. Reed is playing hard and we wouldn't have it any other way. Alec is being nice, even flirting with Jaclyn, and she doesn't stop him. A plan is hatched to possibly switch things up and get Jaclyn and Jon to vote with the 3 boys.
The girls on the reward are fully enjoying this. Thankfully they are aware that this looks bad and they may need to do some damage control when they get back to camp. Missy chose Natalie because she's noticed that Baylor and Natalie are good friends. Natalie finally tells Missy that she found an idol with Baylor. Missy is proud of Baylor, and only slightly annoyed that it was kept secret from her until now.
When the girls get back the next day, they can tell that Jaclyn is being worked on and that it might be working. They see the flirting and Natalie is disgusted by it, saying that Jon would be mad.
Immunity Challenge #1:
Jon returns from Exile looking happy. The challenge is to balance a long paddle on a fulcrum and rolls balls along a groove on the handle, which includes a slight hill near the paddle itself, and rest the balls in slight depressions in the paddle. The first person to get all 6 balls resting in the depressions wins immunity. This quickly turns into a match between Jon and Keith. Jon is working it slow and steady. Keith is even slower, but making great progress. Jon gets to his 5th ball finally being placed when Keith lands #6 and wins immunity.
Pre-Tribal Scramble:
Jaclyn walks off with Jon to tell him what happened starting right after he left for Exile. As she talks, he is frustrated because he's been at Exile and just wants to spend some time with her and not be paranoid for a little while. This frustrates her because he isn't listening to her. He raised his voice, she shut down and walked away. Wonderful, now we have a fighting couple on Survivor. Everyone notices through the afternoon. Jon tries to talk to her but she won't have it. She finally gives in and goes to talk to him, but they end up bickering again and stop talking. The boys are frustrated because they want to work with Jon & Jaclyn, but it's hard to do that if they aren't even talking to each other. Reed doesn't want to work with Missy & Baylor. He suggests that they vote out Missy. Jon seems vaguely open to the idea because he winks at Reed while saying that won't be happening - the wink needed because Natalie was walking up to sit with them.
Tribal Council #1:
This winds up being a big therapy session for Jon & Jaclyn. Sounds like all the dirty laundry was aired and they were able to talk it all out. Reed mentions that it was tough to talk to them because of what was going on. Jeff notes that a real-life personal fight coming into the game complicates an already difficult game. Reed notes the result of the reward challenge and that Jon & Jaclyn should work with the 3 guys. Missy defends against this by noting they tried to cut Jon out 2 days ago and now Alec is flirting with Jaclyn. Jeff asks Jaclyn if that's true. She kind of denies it, but only kind of, and she turns red, so Jeff takes that as confirmation. Jon says he notices and it's a little weird. Baylor notes that Jaclyn & Jon have the benefit of choosing which group to vote with, as Jeff has noted that again Jon & Jaclyn are in the middle.
Vote #1:
Reed votes Missy, saying "This will likely be the only time I ever write your name down", meaning either she is getting voted out now, or more likely she makes it to the end and won't get Reed's vote for the win. The votes are read. It's unanimous other than Reed's vote for Missy. 10th person voted out and 4th member of the Jury is Reed.
Tribal Aftermath:
Alec finally feels alone. He has nobody to talk to after tribal council. He talks to Jon but Jon straightforwardly tells him he trusts his alliance and that Alec has no play and will find no crack. Jon is sounding way too comfortable. See What-If #2.
Reward Challenge #2:
Stand on a small block with only 1 foot touching. Hold a ball against a hanging piece of wood using a football shaped wooden piece with handles. When your ball drops, you're out. Winner gets a king-size bed back at camp and a meal of pasta and chicken parmesan with wine. Alec is out first, really early. Slowly more people drop out. Jon makes a few key saves to reposition his ball. It comes down to Natalie and Jaclyn and Natalie wins as Jaclyn's ball pops out. Natalie sends Alec to Exile without hesitation. She also gets to choose one person to share the reward with. She takes Jaclyn. She gets 1 more person and takes Jon. Jeff asks Missy how this feels being on the other side of this. Missy says it's rough because this one is in your face back at camp. Keith says he's used to it. Natalie tells the camera that she chose Jon because she wants to vote him out and wants to seem loyal and trustworthy.
Reward #2 Fallout:
Missy, Baylor, and Keith go to get water. The reward winners wonder if that is bad, but decide it's probably just that Keith wants to pitch something to them and they'll ignore him. Natalie can't stand being on this reward because Jon just keeps talking about wine and what he'll do with his million dollars.
Natalie talks to Baylor in the morning while Jon & Jaclyn are sleeping. She is sick of Jon and wants to vote him out. They plan to vote him out without telling Missy. Baylor is on board because she sees Jon as blinding Missy. Jon & Jaclyn keep sleeping even back in the standard shelter while everyone is collecting firewood. Jon is sensing a weird vibe now, justifiably. Jaclyn is paranoid that Missy will turn on them.
Immunity Challenge #2:
A return challenge from the past. Balance a pivoting table using a rope attached to a post on 1 side of the table. Go out and bring back wooden blocks to balance in a row on the table. If the table tips far enough that the blocks fall, you have to stop what you're doing and go back to reset the blocks. Block 1 is on the table then there are 3 blocks each at 3 stations further away from the table. Cutting to the chase, it comes down to Jon and Keith again. Keith is going faster, but sometimes needing to return and reset his blocks. Jon is slow and methodical and making safe progress. Ultimately, Jon wins by 1 block.
More Scrambling:
Natalie wanted to kick out Jon, but now she needs a plan B. Jon tells his group they have numbers enough to split the vote between Keith and Alec in case they have an idol. Keith would get 3 votes since he's the bigger immunity threat by a lot. Everyone sounds on board.
Natalie talks to Baylor about what to do now. They're back to the drawing board with not much time left. Alec works on Baylor, telling her nobody talks to her and she's his only friend and she's even going to vote him out. Baylor is touched by Alec showing real emotion for the first time. He might be just charming enough to last another 3 days. Baylor calls it a weird brother/sister or boyfriend/girlfriend sort of thing. The fact that she used the latter analogy means she's starting to play with emotions instead of tactics.
Natalie talks to Keith and tells him he's the more likely target due to immunity threat, but that she thinks he deserves to be here more than Alec. Keith tries to convince Natalie that taking out either Jon or Jaclyn, who are still just lying around, would be easier now using extra votes, than it would be later. Natalie has a revelation that she could flip this game. Her 'game flipping' plan is to switch her vote from Keith to Alec, have Keith vote for Alec, and thus ensure Alec goes home instead of Keith, keeping Keith's challenge ability in play for a further attempt at voting out Jon. See What-If #3 as I shake my head. Natalie tells Baylor but asks her to not tell anyone. Baylor likes Alec so she isn't so sure. Will she stay quiet? Will she also flip her vote to counter Natalie?
Tribal Council #2:
Keith says he's not good at all challenges. Natalie says it's more complicated than just voting for who is better at challenges. I'm surprised she was that honest, but where she's not planning to vote for Jon maybe the telegraph is OK. A rat then goes through the council area and disrupts things. Alec says he'd eat it, especially after being on Exile. Jon opens up about his dad's brain cancer and how that has affected him. His dad taught him about wine, and the wine glass during the bed reward brought this all to the forefront. Jeff asks if that is a good thing or if his opening up just makes him more of a threat? Keith agrees and says he's got a vote and someone can use his vote if they want. Natalie says there will be no surprises and the 5 will stick together tonight.
Vote #2:
Alec votes for Keith in an "either you or me" situation. Keith does the same. Jeff comes back with the votes. No idols are played. Kieth. Alec. Keith. Alec. Keith. Alec. 11th person voted out and the 5th person on the jury - Alec. Jon is shockfused (shocked and confused). Missy echoes his look. Jaclyn looks over, not quite as concerned. Keith winks to Wes, who winks back. Jon looks over to Natalie. Natalie looks over at Baylor. Neither of them look confused. Alec's torch is snuffed. Jon gets censored. Missy is still confused. Jaclyn looks confused at Jon. Jeff says "Well, based on the reactions after the vote, this tight alliance of 5 might not be so tight. Keith, that is good news for you." Natalie smiles as they grab their items to head back to camp.
Scenes From Our Next Episode:
Natalie is holding solid with Keith to get Jon voted out. During a likely reward challenge, while Keith, Jon, and Missy are tied together going through some obstacles, Missy falls hard into a stick. We see her crying. Survivor medical is there saying that to do an x-ray he'd have to pull Missy from the game. Missy and Baylor are crying. Missy says "This is so frustrating."
In Alec's final 30 seconds he's frustrated that he didn't make it further, but he kept fighting despite doing terrible at the challenges. He may not have won, but he made it further than his brother Drew, which he says is win for him.
What-Ifs, or Better Decisions That Could Have Been:
1) Everyone kept questioning whether it was a bad decision for Missy to take Natalie instead of Jaclyn on the reward. Sorry, but the bad decision that nobody is mentioning was to take BAYLOR instead of Jaclyn. The only way this ends up working safely is to take Natalie and Jaclyn with her and leave Baylor, her loved one, to give the cold shoulder to Reed, Alec, and Keith. But no, she had to play emotionally and take her daughter along with her. You always have to be playing the game, and she stopped playing to make an emotional decision to take Baylor on reward.
2) When Alec talks to Jon about the game, Jon needs to not blow him off. Telling him you won't work with him and you trust your alliance just opens the possibility that he works on someone else, which would make you the target. As long as your alliance knows you're just entertaining Alec and keeping his hopes alive, they should be fine with it.
3) Natalie realizes she can flip the game. I instantly knew she had realized that they can still vote out Jaclyn and that will break up this power couple that everyone keeps going to when in need of votes. This reduces Jon's power and leaves him vulnerable for next time. Nope, her big plan is to disobey her alliance and kick out the wrong bottom guy. She keeps Keith, but she'll only have 3 people to vote against Jon (Natalie, Keith, Baylor) which is at best a 3-3 vote. This would result in drawing rocks unless she uses her immunity idol to protect Keith (assuming he doesn't have immunity). Risky stuff. If you vote out Jaclyn (Keith and Alec would be on board, so that's 3 votes, and with you not voting for Keith it would be 3-2-2 and Jaclyn is gone), you truly flip the game and put Jon behind the 8-ball.
4) Why does Natalie want to go to the finals with Baylor and Missy? Sure they're friends, but this is Survivor, not Facebook. Think about this. What happens in that final 3 (assuming it will be a final 3)? My guess is that Missy tells the jury that she's played a good game, but Baylor has played a better one. Missy lays down and asks that anyone who wants to vote for Missy should actually vote for Baylor instead. Natalie would be go from having a 1/3 chance of winning to something much lower. The jury would have to hate both Missy and Baylor for Natalie to have any chance. Then again, maybe Natalie is fine with losing to a friend. We've seen that happen all the way back to season 2.
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