Last Time:
Previously, CBS gave us a double episode. There was plenty of drama, but the end result looks like nothing dramatic happened. Reed and Alec were voted out, Reed unanimously, and Alec in a 4-3 decision. The biggest drama during the episodes was Jon and Jaclyn having a huge couples fight and not talking to each other for about a full day. The biggest drama resulting from it all is that Natalie was supposed to vote for Keith, but switched her vote to save him and send Alec home. Time to find out how that turned out.
Explanation:
Natalie had to figure out what her story would be for why she switched her vote. Her choice was to claim she got mixed up. She was told who to vote for very late, shortly before leaving for tribal, and she thought Jon, Jaclyn, and she were supposed to vote for Alec. This isn't what happened. She knows it. The others aren't happy but are sort of buying the story. Natalie is lucky they're not more suspicious.
Reward Challenge:
Teams of 3, tied together, must get through a tunnel of hay followed by an obstacle course of wooden bars that you must go over (the tall ones) and under (the short ones). Then transfer water using one bucket into a goal bucket by carrying it over a rope-mesh see-saw and trying to not lose much water. When the bucket is full enough, it triggers the beginning of a puzzle the team must solve using wooden slats. Winning team gets the spa treatment and some good food. Jon/Keith/Missy will be facing Jaclyn/Baylor/Natalie.
It's a fairly close battle. Missy trips a few times in the obstacle course. Both Missy and Jaclyn take a few rough falls/landings on the see-saw. Missy seems to have hurt her ankle on the first landing, so her team is slower to finish the water portion of the challenge. The all-girl team has the lead in the puzzle, but both teams are slow to realize that there are a few border pieces on each end. Jon's team figures this out first and barely edges out the victory. Jon is thrilled. Jaclyn is upset that he's so happy. Jon then reveals that the spa isn't his thing so he's going to give up reward for Baylor. Baylor/Missy/Keith then decide to send Natalie, who volunteers, to Exile Island. This leaves Jon and Jaclyn to go back to camp alone. Missy heads out on Baylor's back, piggy-back style, because her ankle is bothering her.
Reward:
Keith decides he really likes the spa, but don't tell the guys back at the firehouse. The massage, his first ever, is quite enjoyable. Missy and Baylor enjoy it too. Nothing too dramatic happens here, but Missy's ankle is looking quite swollen and still hurts. They enjoy some 'spa food' and have a good time. Meanwhile, at Exile, Natalie is having a rough time. She reminds us she's been apart from Nadiya for 30 days now and it's really tough for her.
Before The Immunity Challenge:
Missy is the topic of conversation. She walked back in using a makeshift crutch. Jeff asks her about it and they agree to have Survivor Medical come inspect it before continuing. It hurts her when pressure is applied in a few places and she can't push down like one would on an accelorater pedal. Medical determines that at the very least it is a bad sprain, but it's possible she broke something. The only way they would know for sure is if they did an x-ray and to do that she would have to be pulled from the game. Jeff sums up the situation and asks if the medical team needs to pull her of if it is up to her. He says it's her call. With only 6 days left they could immobilize it and let her decide if it becomes too much to bear. In a move 180 degrees away from Julie (Remember her from 5 episodes ago? If no, you aren't missing anything? If yes, don't you wish you didn't? Missy is the one to remember), Missy tells them to immobilize it so she can stay in the game. I couldn't be happier. It's great to see someone respect this game so much.
Immunity Challenge:
Missy gets her leg immobilized while he challenge is described and taking place. There's no way she could do this one anyway. You must stand on 1 leg on a round peg which is attached to an arm that holds a tall vase. Your arms hold onto ropes with handles and you use them to steady yourself and make adjustments, all to keep the vase from falling. Last one with a vase intact wins immunity.
The wind picks up, as if scripted. Some have wondered if they purposefully hold off starting the challenge until something like that. My guess is no, but it does make for good TV. I'll save you most of the details. It comes down to Jon and Natalie. Jon is using a strategy of shifting lots of his weight onto the hand grips, and it's working well for him. Natalie seems to be employing the use of some great core strength to keep everything steady. The wind keeps gusting. Suddenly it takes a perfectly steady vase and slowly tips it off. Jon is out. Natalie wins immunity.
Scrambling Time:
Jaclyn has been worried that the others are going to pull something funny, but Jon is convinced she's just being paranoid. As viewers though, we know that Natalie has been waiting for revenge ever since Jon voted Jeremy out of the game. Sure enough, she is talking to Keith and Baylor to convince them of a plan to get rid of Jon. Keith just has to act like he's going home and has no true hope. This may be a stretch, but maybe he can put on a better show this time. The problem is that Missy would need to be on board. If Baylor can convince her, they have 4 votes and can split 2-2 in case Jon plays his idol. They talk to Missy. She's not on board. She gave her word to Jon, so she refuses to vote for him. Baylor and Natalie try to change her mind, but she's having nothing of it. If she turns on Jon then nobody would vote for her because of her dishonesty. Let's see how this turns out.
Tribal Council:
Keith gets his time to shine. Will he blow it? He says he tried to pierce the 5-alliance, but can't find any cracks. He issues the standard plea that he is a vote that people can use if they want. I think he slightly oversold it, but not too badly.
Standard conversations about trust. Plenty of great facial expressions from the jury. Jaclyn says she's worried people may flip on Jon sometime. Jon tells them all that he trusts the alliance of 5 and how can he expect them to trust him unless he trusts them. Baylor rolls her eyes a little bit. Did they convince Missy or not? Keith helps Missy to the voting station, then back.
Time to read the votes: Keith. Jaclyn. Keith. Jaclyn. Looks start being exchanged. Jon. Jon. It's a 2-2-2 tie. Jaclyn and Jon realize they've been had. In the revote, only Missy, Baylor, and Natalie will vote. Jon. Jon. No need to read the final vote. The 6th member of the jury is Jon. He stands up, hugs Jaclyn, walks past the others, says "nice move buddy" to Keith, forgets his torch, goes back for it, then Jeff snuffs his torch. Here's Jeff's wise quote: "Survivor is a tricky game. It can lull you into believing things that aren't real, like trust. And before you know it, you've forgotten the basic premise: Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. This game is wide open."
Fallout:
We have our final 5 for next week's 2-hour finale. Missy, Baylor, Jaclyn, Keith, Natalie. We see a preview of Natalie and Jaclyn butting heads, to no surprise, arguing over knowing Jon in the game as opposed to real life. Jaclyn saying to the camera that she didn't come out here 36 days to get voted out. Keith slapping his own face over and over again. Missy says she can't do anything. To find out how it ends, tune in to CBS on Wednesday December 17th from 8-10:05. Then you might as well keep watching through 11pm and enjoy the live reunion show with questions and answers, extra scenes, further commentary, and just to see what these 18 people look like now that they've returned to the real world for about 5 months. Oh, and we'll get a brief preview of next season just before 11pm.
Strategic Speculation:
Now for my favorite part. Time to figure out what will happen next, what are the best moves for people, what are the most likely moves for people, and what could screw things up.
Keith: He's lucky to still be here. Natalie saved him last week and used him this week. Will she be done with him? Quite possibly. He may have a new friend in Jaclyn though. For Keith, it's still do-or-die mode. He needs to try to win the immunity challenge to have any real shot at sticking around. Lots of jury votes would go his way if he makes it to the final 3.
Jaclyn: Since I mentioned her in Keith's section she'll go next. She just had everyone in the game turn on her. The only person who might even entertain working with her is Keith. But that's only 2 votes against the other 3. Her best hope would be to convince Missy & Baylor that Natalie has made too many big moves, to convince them that she made none - it was all Jon, and get them to vote Natalie out before her. Long shot, especially given an immunity idol that I'll talk about in Natalie's section. But speaking of immunity idols. Jon didn't play his. So where is it? All he left tribal with was a canteen. If it was in his pocket, it's gone. If it was in a bag, it is possible that Jaclyn now has posession of it. Not sure on the rules about this, but I would guess she may have it at her disposal. I'll talk more about those possibilities later.
Natalie: The obvious segueway here is that Natalie has a hidden immunity idol. It can only be played through the final 5, so it has to be used at the next tribal to have any value (and Jeff will say that too, so there's probably no funny business like what Tony pulled last season). So she is going to play it, probably on herself, but maybe on someone else depending on what sort of shenanigans get pulled. We'll be seeing her in the final 4. She thinks she can beat Missy and Baylor, and she's probably right, so it's likely she tries to make it to the end with them.
Baylor: She's in a good spot. Missy won't vote her out. Natalie has adopted her as a replacement sister so probably couldn't find it in her heart to backstab her. It looks good for a final 3 with her mom and Natalie, barring any curveballs.
Missy: Same story as Baylor. Same alliance, same chance of going further in the game. Only catch is her bum ankle, but she may not need immunity to advance anyway.
Possible Shenanigans: As I said before, Jaclyn may have Jon's hidden idol. This may be her only chance to advance to the finals. Let's assume she has it and is willing to play it strategically. Why strategically? If neither she nor Keith win immunity then it's a gamble who will be targeted first so she could play it on Keith. If one of them does win immunity, she has 2 choices: reveal the idol and force the other 3 to turn on each other, or keep it secret, hope they don't realize you now have it, and vote with Keith to send home whoever you want. The latter is the choice to make because it's too likely that Missy just sacrifices for her daughter and you wouldn't get any drama out of that anyway. Here's the problem though. Jaclyn now hates Natalie so would likely target her, and Jaclyn would assume that revealing the idol would lead Missy & Baylor to vote together against Natalie. But Natalie has her own idol and will play it since it's the final chance and both Missy & Baylor know this. The result? 3 votes for Keith or Jaclyn, which may disappear due to her hidden idol. 2 votes for Natalie which will vanish due to Natalie's idol. 3 people immune, because someone has individual immunity. No votes count. What happens? Who the hell knows - probably only Jeff Probst and a few other executive producer types. My guess would be a fire making challenge between Missy and Baylor. Maybe still no true drama since one may give it to the other, but a fantastic scenario to play out. And a tangled web.
Another Scenario:
I said maybe Jaclyn could try convincing Missy & Baylor that Natalie was trouble. But both of them know that Natalie has a hidden idol that will be played, so they know she's safe. They'll have to vote either Keith or Jaclyn at the next vote, so they'll stick with Natalie for now.
Most Likely Progression:
Based on all the talk above, your final 3 should be Missy, Natalie, and Baylor. Unless the Shenanigan scenario comes true, or the survivor of Keith and Jaclyn wins immunity at the final 4 challenge (a 1/3 chance since Missy likely won't compete), this is virtually guaranteed. So what does this mean for a final vote? Nobody would have a guaranteed vote since they wouldn't have loved ones on the jury. Problem here is that Missy and Baylor shouldn't argue against each other for votes. They should attempt to funnel all votes to one of them. Will this work with the jury? Maybe. The trick here is that if they jury doesn't hate them, it will work, and "they" will win through one of them getting enough votes. If the jury hates them, they already lost. I'd give Natalie a bit less than 1/3 chance of winning thanks to that. But she has made more strategic moves to orchestrate the end of the game, so that certianly plays to her favor.
My Prediction:
I'm giving the win to Natalie. She's got a great chance to make the final 3 and has a good story to tell. Then add in the liklihood that Missy and/or Baylor cry their eyes out over some question/attack from the jury and I'm even more likely to predict Natalie. Do, however, have a few grains of salt around. This is Survivor! Anything can still happen.
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