Final Five:
Last week, Natalie had managed to get Missy and Baylor to agree to vote out Jon (or Jaclyn if Jon played his idol). This leaves us with a final five of Jaclyn, Missy, Baylor, Natalie, and Keith. Jaclyn wasn't too happy about this. A brief discussion when they returned from tribal council ended up with Jaclyn screaming at Natalie that she doesn't know Jon in real life. This was in the preview last week, but we'll have to see if this carries through the episode or was just an angry outburst.
Reward Challenge With 5 People:
Making their way into the reward challenge, we see that Missy has repurposed one of John Rocker's left-over sneakers into her own sneaker to place on her cast. She had to cut some of it away, but it works for better stability. Unfortunately, the challenge is too difficult for her to manage, so only 4 will compete.
Tied to a rope, you must untangle and unwind yourself in/around/through a wooden structure to release enough rope to complete the rest of the challenge. From there you must build a bridge by placing wooden rungs, ladder-style, up a small incline, then across a long bridge structure, and back down. Once that is done you have to take sandbags and knock over a pyramid of stout can shaped objects. First one to knock down all their cans wins an advantage in the next immunity challenge.
With Missy sitting, only 4 compete for this. The rope portion doesn't go too badly for everyone, but Natalie and Keith are out in the lead with Jaclyn close behind. Keith and Natalie are back and forth for who is in the lead. Both of them, and Jaclyn, are taking some rough falls and banging themselves into wooden beams. Keith manages to finish his bridge first and starts throwing sandbags. Natalie starts next, but Keith is too far ahead. Keith wins reward. It is a note that he is instructed to read alone back at camp. He also gets to send one person to Exile. He chooses Jaclyn. Whether this was strategic is questionable given that Keith decided. But it was a good call. Jaclyn may get another idol clue and if there is another one hidden then they could both be immune tonight.
Reward Is Important:
Keith reads his reward. Go out into the woods and find a challenge practice location. He heads out and finds a single version of a challenge with balls, a wooden table, and a series of metal structures including shallow metal paddles that you must use to transfer a ball from one end of the table to the other. He is allowed to practice with this, but can only use it until he leaves the table - once he leaves, he can't practice anymore. He figures He'll stay until dark. It looks like it is quite difficult. Keith is having trouble with it for quite some time, but is at least making his way through the initial learning curve if nothing else.
Immunity Challenge With 5 People:
This one Missy can compete in since it is mostly stationary. They never show the others hearing what Keith's advantage was, but maybe that just didn't make TV. All 5 of them are making lots of blunders and having the balls fall on back to the table. They need to transfer 3 balls so this may take a while. Finally Keith starts making progress, but Baylor is getting the hang of it too. Will she beat Keith even with his practice? Maybe not. She drops again and Keith starts to pick it up. Keith scores the first ball. I'll skip ahead since nothing much else happens. Keith scores all 3 balls and nobody else even comes close to finishing their first ball. That reward totally broke this game. Giving someone the advantage of only having to transfer 2 balls would have been less lopsided.
Fallout Before Tribal Council #1:
Keith is immune. Jaclyn's clue is the same one Jon had and points to the same place. She doesn't even check. Let's hope, for her sake, that they didn't hide another one there and she's ignoring it. Everyone assumes that Jaclyn will go home since she's the odd person out. Jaclyn's only hope is if Natalie and/or Keith want to work with her.
Tribal Council #1:
Looks like Jaclyn is toast. She votes for Baylor and hopes that something happens. Jeff gets the votes. Natalie is playing her idol - smart. Wait a minute. Natalie asks Jaclyn if she voted for who she was told to vote for. Jaclyn says yes. Natalie says it's fun to play an idol, but even more fun to play it on someone else. Jaclyn is now safe from the vote. Yikes. Bold move. If people had decided to target her without her knowing, she may have just lost the game in a dumb move. Or not. 3 votes for Jaclyn don't count. Natalie and Jaclyn voted for Baylor! The final couple has been broken up in a major blindside. Wow.
Immunity Challenge #2:
No time or need for another reward challenge. On to the final immunity challenge. They have to race down a 4-story structure (fire pole and slide get you down) and retrieve bags of puzzle pieces. When you collect 3 bags, you climb all the stairs to bring your bags to the top. Then race back down to collect the other 2 bags before going back up to solve the puzzle. The solved puzzle will have 3 holes in it. The holes will be 3 different shapes. You then race back down, go to a location with lots of shapes corresponding to different 2-digit numbers. Remember your shapes, convert them to their numbers, remember your numbers, climb back to the top, enter your numbers like a combination lock and see if you did it all correctly.
Again, Missy can't compete, so we have 3 people fighting for a spot in the finals. Natalie and Keith start out tied after 3 bags. Natalie pulls slightly ahead and makes it to the top first. Keith comes up not far behind her. Jaclyn is a little further behind and is having trouble climbing the stairs and untying her bags. The puzzle making begins. Natalie tries to utilize her head-start. Keith isn't making much progress. Jaclyn starts making up ground and manages to finish her puzzle first. The symbols are diamond, star, and one of those map-marker shapes - kind of balloon like. She heads back down, but takes a bad fall going down the fire pole. Jeff goes down some stairs to check on her to see if she's hurt. It looks like she is, but she keeps on going. As she gets to the bottom, Natalie finishes and starts going down. Jaclyn looks at the symbols and starts memorizing numbers. Natalie is untying the flap that covers this chart. Jaclyn starts going back up, but again isn't very fast. Natalie could still catch her, especially if Jaclyn got it wrong. Jaclyn gets to the top first, puts in her numbers, and BINGO. Jaclyn wins immunity.
Realization By The Author:
Keeping Jaclyn to vote out Baylor seemed like a bad move originally. Now it seems wise. If Baylor were still here, she would have voted with Missy to remove Natalie since they can't vote for Jaclyn. Instead, there is no guaranteed voting block of two people, so there will be a choice between Missy, Natalie, and Keith. I have to give Natalie credit for the previous tribal council. In her shoes, I would have played it safer, removed Keith so he couldn't make it to the final tribal council, and hoped I could beat Jaclyn in the last challenge. It appears that my safe-playing would have backfired. Maybe I've learned something for when they finally cast me for a season. It'll surely factor into my decision making if nothing else.
Final Scrambling:
Jaclyn asks if Missy is willing to vote for Natalie. Missy is fine with that plan because Natalie voted out her daughter.
Keith tells Jaclyn that Missy is too much of a threat because she'll get jury votes out of sympathy for her injured leg.
Natalie tells Jaclyn that Keith is the biggest threat since there are so many guys on the jury.
Who does she believe? What does she think for herself? What is the best move? Can she beat any of these people? Time will tell.
Tribal Council #2:
Keith hopes he'll get to stick around. Jaclyn replays talking to everyone. Jeff asks Natalie if she thinks she can win. Natalie says yes, and starts explaining why. What is she doing!? Natalie! Save that for next tribal council. Gosh, did she just accidentally convince the others to vote her out?
Now for the votes: Keith votes for Missy. Missy votes for Keith. Natalie votes for Keith. Jaclyn votes for Keith. There you have it. Your final three are all women in a season that started with 8 women and 10 men. Jaclyn ultimately decided to get rid of Keith for being more of a threat than Natalie.
Final Tribal Council:
No need to discuss anything that happened in between tribals. They went back, basked in the glory of being in the finals, enjoyed some final time there. Maybe there was even food - I can't remember if it was then or earlier when they hit final 5.
Missy addresses the jury. Her strategy is to say she played an honest loyal game. Many, other than Jon, might believe that. Not her best play, in my opinion, but we'll see if it gets her anywhere.
Jaclyn decides to say that this game has been like life for her. She has persevered and made it to the end through all sorts of unlikely scenarios. In life, she has a condition that prevents her from having children. She is glad to be here in the finals and showing to all the other women with this condition that you can still do things in life. Again, not sure that was her best play, but we'll see.
Natalie plays the right cards. She has done better at outplaying, outwitting, and outlasting everyone. She made key moves to better her chances and played hard from day 1 in order to make up for her sister being voted out 1st. Not the best she could have said, but not bad, as long as the jury is one that rewards game-play instead of being bitter.
Now, in no particular order (other than NOT the order they were shown to us on TV) my general impressions of the jury asking their questions.
Keith wanted to know why Natalie had lied to him. Odd question. They were never in an alliance. Natalie correctly told him that it was either him or her so she had to save herself and play him up as the bigger threat. I guess maybe she had told him she was voting for Missy? Who knows. I figure he isn't going to vote for Natalie.
Wes loved playing with his dad. He asks what the best thing about playing with a loved one was for them. They answer and he seems happy with their answers, but I can't tell who he's leaning for. Wildcard.
Jon is voting for Jaclyn, obviously. He gives her a chance to tell the jury something she did in the game that was solely her decision that affected the final 3. She says it was voting out Josh. She figures she would have been the bottom of that alliance.
Alec has no question for Jaclyn. What was Natalie's biggest move. She says it was voting Alec out. He says he knew she would say that. She has played perfectly to his ego, and it was true. He asks Missy what was so motherly about her playing the game. She says she directed who was voted out. He seems likely to be voting for Natalie.
Baylor is obviously voting for Missy. She just gives a speech saying how much she loves her mom. Nothing more.
Josh asks Jaclyn if she's here based on her own merit or by choices made by stronger players. Jaclyn says that she and Jon made all sorts of decisions together. Jon didn't make the choices alone. Josh asks what was just her move and idea. She reiterates that voting him out was her idea.
Jeremy is "a student of this game". He says the best player is going to win. He makes the huge case for Natalie. No questions, just tells everyone they have to vote for Natalie since she played the best.
Reed loves Natalie's game play. He likes Jaclyn too and wishes he could have made some moves with her. Then he gives the drama speech of the season. It's worse than Sue in season 1. He calls Missy the wicked step-mother of the season. It's a long, drawn-out analogy. She abused "the help" - the minority alliances. She didn't invite them to "the ball" - the final tribal council. He loves fairy tales. They always have a happy ending and the wicked step-mother never wins. Baylor cries after that - it hurt her way more than it hurt Missy.
For the vote, we see the following shown to us.
Jon votes for Jaclyn. No surprise.
Jeremy votes for Natalie. No surprise based on his tribal speech.
Reed votes for Jaclyn. That was a toss-up from before.
Baylor votes for Missy. No surprise there.
Live Votes, Live Reunion Show and Discussion:
The votes are read in this order. Jaclyn. Nat. Jacklyn. Missy. Nat. Nat. Nat. She is the winner of Survivor San Juan del Sur. #SOLESURVIVOR No need to read the final vote since it won't make a difference. Natalie wins 5-2-1.
Natalie thinks she won because her mindset changed when her sister was voted out. She knew she had to convince Jaclyn that Keith was the bigger threat. She told Missy to vote Keith and Keith to vote Missy.
Jaclyn says if she knew it would happen that way, she would have kept Keith instead. Jeff does what he always does and asks the would-be jury in that scenario who they would have voted for. It wasn't as definitive as he had thought, but it appears that Keith might have won 4-3-1 if he had been in the finals. So Jaclyn may not have had any good move to make. But who knows what would have happened for sure.
Jeremy discusses the fact that playing with Keith was tougher than playing against strategists. Keith didn't really know the game so he didn't behave predictably. It was difficult for the people playing with strategy. Keith says the guys at the firehouse pick on him for that. He'll say he's going out to mow the yard and they'll yell to him "Stick to the plan!"
John Rocker admits that facing Barry Bonds is easier than playing Survivor because you have a strategy to attempt that you just need to execute.
Josh and Reed are apparently now role models as they are a gay christian couple. They didn't expect this, but they are glad they are a positive influence for people.
Jon and Jaclyn admit their argument on the show was funny to watch and were amazed at the simple thing they were arguing about. They announced that they had become engaged earlier this year.
Missy and Reed haven't spoken since his final tribal speech. It was an awkward moment when Jeff asked if they had made up. A long stare and no words spoken to Reed by Missy. Reed says it wasn't personal, it was just his opinion of her within the confines of the game and he isn't going to apologize for it.
Next Season Reveal:
The preview for next season goes something like this.
White Collar - They make the rules.
Blue Collar - They follow the rules.
No Collar - They break the rules.
We see at least 1 person from each tribe - a man in each case. A guy in a suit, a bald guy with a big beard and a different guy wearing a Boston shirt with a tattoo, and a guy with white feathers in his hair. We also get voice-overs from several different people, more than the few that they showed.
It is called Survivor: Worlds Apart, and it debuts Wednesday February 25th in a 90 minute premier, followed by the spring premier of The Amazing Race. Jeff has gone on record saying he thinks we'll like the 30th season as it's even better than the one we just finished.
Saturday, December 20, 2014
Sunday, December 14, 2014
Keys to Survivor San Juan del Sur Episode 13 & Finale Predictions
Last Time:
Previously, CBS gave us a double episode. There was plenty of drama, but the end result looks like nothing dramatic happened. Reed and Alec were voted out, Reed unanimously, and Alec in a 4-3 decision. The biggest drama during the episodes was Jon and Jaclyn having a huge couples fight and not talking to each other for about a full day. The biggest drama resulting from it all is that Natalie was supposed to vote for Keith, but switched her vote to save him and send Alec home. Time to find out how that turned out.
Explanation:
Natalie had to figure out what her story would be for why she switched her vote. Her choice was to claim she got mixed up. She was told who to vote for very late, shortly before leaving for tribal, and she thought Jon, Jaclyn, and she were supposed to vote for Alec. This isn't what happened. She knows it. The others aren't happy but are sort of buying the story. Natalie is lucky they're not more suspicious.
Reward Challenge:
Teams of 3, tied together, must get through a tunnel of hay followed by an obstacle course of wooden bars that you must go over (the tall ones) and under (the short ones). Then transfer water using one bucket into a goal bucket by carrying it over a rope-mesh see-saw and trying to not lose much water. When the bucket is full enough, it triggers the beginning of a puzzle the team must solve using wooden slats. Winning team gets the spa treatment and some good food. Jon/Keith/Missy will be facing Jaclyn/Baylor/Natalie.
It's a fairly close battle. Missy trips a few times in the obstacle course. Both Missy and Jaclyn take a few rough falls/landings on the see-saw. Missy seems to have hurt her ankle on the first landing, so her team is slower to finish the water portion of the challenge. The all-girl team has the lead in the puzzle, but both teams are slow to realize that there are a few border pieces on each end. Jon's team figures this out first and barely edges out the victory. Jon is thrilled. Jaclyn is upset that he's so happy. Jon then reveals that the spa isn't his thing so he's going to give up reward for Baylor. Baylor/Missy/Keith then decide to send Natalie, who volunteers, to Exile Island. This leaves Jon and Jaclyn to go back to camp alone. Missy heads out on Baylor's back, piggy-back style, because her ankle is bothering her.
Reward:
Keith decides he really likes the spa, but don't tell the guys back at the firehouse. The massage, his first ever, is quite enjoyable. Missy and Baylor enjoy it too. Nothing too dramatic happens here, but Missy's ankle is looking quite swollen and still hurts. They enjoy some 'spa food' and have a good time. Meanwhile, at Exile, Natalie is having a rough time. She reminds us she's been apart from Nadiya for 30 days now and it's really tough for her.
Before The Immunity Challenge:
Missy is the topic of conversation. She walked back in using a makeshift crutch. Jeff asks her about it and they agree to have Survivor Medical come inspect it before continuing. It hurts her when pressure is applied in a few places and she can't push down like one would on an accelorater pedal. Medical determines that at the very least it is a bad sprain, but it's possible she broke something. The only way they would know for sure is if they did an x-ray and to do that she would have to be pulled from the game. Jeff sums up the situation and asks if the medical team needs to pull her of if it is up to her. He says it's her call. With only 6 days left they could immobilize it and let her decide if it becomes too much to bear. In a move 180 degrees away from Julie (Remember her from 5 episodes ago? If no, you aren't missing anything? If yes, don't you wish you didn't? Missy is the one to remember), Missy tells them to immobilize it so she can stay in the game. I couldn't be happier. It's great to see someone respect this game so much.
Immunity Challenge:
Missy gets her leg immobilized while he challenge is described and taking place. There's no way she could do this one anyway. You must stand on 1 leg on a round peg which is attached to an arm that holds a tall vase. Your arms hold onto ropes with handles and you use them to steady yourself and make adjustments, all to keep the vase from falling. Last one with a vase intact wins immunity.
The wind picks up, as if scripted. Some have wondered if they purposefully hold off starting the challenge until something like that. My guess is no, but it does make for good TV. I'll save you most of the details. It comes down to Jon and Natalie. Jon is using a strategy of shifting lots of his weight onto the hand grips, and it's working well for him. Natalie seems to be employing the use of some great core strength to keep everything steady. The wind keeps gusting. Suddenly it takes a perfectly steady vase and slowly tips it off. Jon is out. Natalie wins immunity.
Scrambling Time:
Jaclyn has been worried that the others are going to pull something funny, but Jon is convinced she's just being paranoid. As viewers though, we know that Natalie has been waiting for revenge ever since Jon voted Jeremy out of the game. Sure enough, she is talking to Keith and Baylor to convince them of a plan to get rid of Jon. Keith just has to act like he's going home and has no true hope. This may be a stretch, but maybe he can put on a better show this time. The problem is that Missy would need to be on board. If Baylor can convince her, they have 4 votes and can split 2-2 in case Jon plays his idol. They talk to Missy. She's not on board. She gave her word to Jon, so she refuses to vote for him. Baylor and Natalie try to change her mind, but she's having nothing of it. If she turns on Jon then nobody would vote for her because of her dishonesty. Let's see how this turns out.
Tribal Council:
Keith gets his time to shine. Will he blow it? He says he tried to pierce the 5-alliance, but can't find any cracks. He issues the standard plea that he is a vote that people can use if they want. I think he slightly oversold it, but not too badly.
Standard conversations about trust. Plenty of great facial expressions from the jury. Jaclyn says she's worried people may flip on Jon sometime. Jon tells them all that he trusts the alliance of 5 and how can he expect them to trust him unless he trusts them. Baylor rolls her eyes a little bit. Did they convince Missy or not? Keith helps Missy to the voting station, then back.
Time to read the votes: Keith. Jaclyn. Keith. Jaclyn. Looks start being exchanged. Jon. Jon. It's a 2-2-2 tie. Jaclyn and Jon realize they've been had. In the revote, only Missy, Baylor, and Natalie will vote. Jon. Jon. No need to read the final vote. The 6th member of the jury is Jon. He stands up, hugs Jaclyn, walks past the others, says "nice move buddy" to Keith, forgets his torch, goes back for it, then Jeff snuffs his torch. Here's Jeff's wise quote: "Survivor is a tricky game. It can lull you into believing things that aren't real, like trust. And before you know it, you've forgotten the basic premise: Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. This game is wide open."
Fallout:
We have our final 5 for next week's 2-hour finale. Missy, Baylor, Jaclyn, Keith, Natalie. We see a preview of Natalie and Jaclyn butting heads, to no surprise, arguing over knowing Jon in the game as opposed to real life. Jaclyn saying to the camera that she didn't come out here 36 days to get voted out. Keith slapping his own face over and over again. Missy says she can't do anything. To find out how it ends, tune in to CBS on Wednesday December 17th from 8-10:05. Then you might as well keep watching through 11pm and enjoy the live reunion show with questions and answers, extra scenes, further commentary, and just to see what these 18 people look like now that they've returned to the real world for about 5 months. Oh, and we'll get a brief preview of next season just before 11pm.
Strategic Speculation:
Now for my favorite part. Time to figure out what will happen next, what are the best moves for people, what are the most likely moves for people, and what could screw things up.
Keith: He's lucky to still be here. Natalie saved him last week and used him this week. Will she be done with him? Quite possibly. He may have a new friend in Jaclyn though. For Keith, it's still do-or-die mode. He needs to try to win the immunity challenge to have any real shot at sticking around. Lots of jury votes would go his way if he makes it to the final 3.
Jaclyn: Since I mentioned her in Keith's section she'll go next. She just had everyone in the game turn on her. The only person who might even entertain working with her is Keith. But that's only 2 votes against the other 3. Her best hope would be to convince Missy & Baylor that Natalie has made too many big moves, to convince them that she made none - it was all Jon, and get them to vote Natalie out before her. Long shot, especially given an immunity idol that I'll talk about in Natalie's section. But speaking of immunity idols. Jon didn't play his. So where is it? All he left tribal with was a canteen. If it was in his pocket, it's gone. If it was in a bag, it is possible that Jaclyn now has posession of it. Not sure on the rules about this, but I would guess she may have it at her disposal. I'll talk more about those possibilities later.
Natalie: The obvious segueway here is that Natalie has a hidden immunity idol. It can only be played through the final 5, so it has to be used at the next tribal to have any value (and Jeff will say that too, so there's probably no funny business like what Tony pulled last season). So she is going to play it, probably on herself, but maybe on someone else depending on what sort of shenanigans get pulled. We'll be seeing her in the final 4. She thinks she can beat Missy and Baylor, and she's probably right, so it's likely she tries to make it to the end with them.
Baylor: She's in a good spot. Missy won't vote her out. Natalie has adopted her as a replacement sister so probably couldn't find it in her heart to backstab her. It looks good for a final 3 with her mom and Natalie, barring any curveballs.
Missy: Same story as Baylor. Same alliance, same chance of going further in the game. Only catch is her bum ankle, but she may not need immunity to advance anyway.
Possible Shenanigans: As I said before, Jaclyn may have Jon's hidden idol. This may be her only chance to advance to the finals. Let's assume she has it and is willing to play it strategically. Why strategically? If neither she nor Keith win immunity then it's a gamble who will be targeted first so she could play it on Keith. If one of them does win immunity, she has 2 choices: reveal the idol and force the other 3 to turn on each other, or keep it secret, hope they don't realize you now have it, and vote with Keith to send home whoever you want. The latter is the choice to make because it's too likely that Missy just sacrifices for her daughter and you wouldn't get any drama out of that anyway. Here's the problem though. Jaclyn now hates Natalie so would likely target her, and Jaclyn would assume that revealing the idol would lead Missy & Baylor to vote together against Natalie. But Natalie has her own idol and will play it since it's the final chance and both Missy & Baylor know this. The result? 3 votes for Keith or Jaclyn, which may disappear due to her hidden idol. 2 votes for Natalie which will vanish due to Natalie's idol. 3 people immune, because someone has individual immunity. No votes count. What happens? Who the hell knows - probably only Jeff Probst and a few other executive producer types. My guess would be a fire making challenge between Missy and Baylor. Maybe still no true drama since one may give it to the other, but a fantastic scenario to play out. And a tangled web.
Another Scenario:
I said maybe Jaclyn could try convincing Missy & Baylor that Natalie was trouble. But both of them know that Natalie has a hidden idol that will be played, so they know she's safe. They'll have to vote either Keith or Jaclyn at the next vote, so they'll stick with Natalie for now.
Most Likely Progression:
Based on all the talk above, your final 3 should be Missy, Natalie, and Baylor. Unless the Shenanigan scenario comes true, or the survivor of Keith and Jaclyn wins immunity at the final 4 challenge (a 1/3 chance since Missy likely won't compete), this is virtually guaranteed. So what does this mean for a final vote? Nobody would have a guaranteed vote since they wouldn't have loved ones on the jury. Problem here is that Missy and Baylor shouldn't argue against each other for votes. They should attempt to funnel all votes to one of them. Will this work with the jury? Maybe. The trick here is that if they jury doesn't hate them, it will work, and "they" will win through one of them getting enough votes. If the jury hates them, they already lost. I'd give Natalie a bit less than 1/3 chance of winning thanks to that. But she has made more strategic moves to orchestrate the end of the game, so that certianly plays to her favor.
My Prediction:
I'm giving the win to Natalie. She's got a great chance to make the final 3 and has a good story to tell. Then add in the liklihood that Missy and/or Baylor cry their eyes out over some question/attack from the jury and I'm even more likely to predict Natalie. Do, however, have a few grains of salt around. This is Survivor! Anything can still happen.
Previously, CBS gave us a double episode. There was plenty of drama, but the end result looks like nothing dramatic happened. Reed and Alec were voted out, Reed unanimously, and Alec in a 4-3 decision. The biggest drama during the episodes was Jon and Jaclyn having a huge couples fight and not talking to each other for about a full day. The biggest drama resulting from it all is that Natalie was supposed to vote for Keith, but switched her vote to save him and send Alec home. Time to find out how that turned out.
Explanation:
Natalie had to figure out what her story would be for why she switched her vote. Her choice was to claim she got mixed up. She was told who to vote for very late, shortly before leaving for tribal, and she thought Jon, Jaclyn, and she were supposed to vote for Alec. This isn't what happened. She knows it. The others aren't happy but are sort of buying the story. Natalie is lucky they're not more suspicious.
Reward Challenge:
Teams of 3, tied together, must get through a tunnel of hay followed by an obstacle course of wooden bars that you must go over (the tall ones) and under (the short ones). Then transfer water using one bucket into a goal bucket by carrying it over a rope-mesh see-saw and trying to not lose much water. When the bucket is full enough, it triggers the beginning of a puzzle the team must solve using wooden slats. Winning team gets the spa treatment and some good food. Jon/Keith/Missy will be facing Jaclyn/Baylor/Natalie.
It's a fairly close battle. Missy trips a few times in the obstacle course. Both Missy and Jaclyn take a few rough falls/landings on the see-saw. Missy seems to have hurt her ankle on the first landing, so her team is slower to finish the water portion of the challenge. The all-girl team has the lead in the puzzle, but both teams are slow to realize that there are a few border pieces on each end. Jon's team figures this out first and barely edges out the victory. Jon is thrilled. Jaclyn is upset that he's so happy. Jon then reveals that the spa isn't his thing so he's going to give up reward for Baylor. Baylor/Missy/Keith then decide to send Natalie, who volunteers, to Exile Island. This leaves Jon and Jaclyn to go back to camp alone. Missy heads out on Baylor's back, piggy-back style, because her ankle is bothering her.
Reward:
Keith decides he really likes the spa, but don't tell the guys back at the firehouse. The massage, his first ever, is quite enjoyable. Missy and Baylor enjoy it too. Nothing too dramatic happens here, but Missy's ankle is looking quite swollen and still hurts. They enjoy some 'spa food' and have a good time. Meanwhile, at Exile, Natalie is having a rough time. She reminds us she's been apart from Nadiya for 30 days now and it's really tough for her.
Before The Immunity Challenge:
Missy is the topic of conversation. She walked back in using a makeshift crutch. Jeff asks her about it and they agree to have Survivor Medical come inspect it before continuing. It hurts her when pressure is applied in a few places and she can't push down like one would on an accelorater pedal. Medical determines that at the very least it is a bad sprain, but it's possible she broke something. The only way they would know for sure is if they did an x-ray and to do that she would have to be pulled from the game. Jeff sums up the situation and asks if the medical team needs to pull her of if it is up to her. He says it's her call. With only 6 days left they could immobilize it and let her decide if it becomes too much to bear. In a move 180 degrees away from Julie (Remember her from 5 episodes ago? If no, you aren't missing anything? If yes, don't you wish you didn't? Missy is the one to remember), Missy tells them to immobilize it so she can stay in the game. I couldn't be happier. It's great to see someone respect this game so much.
Immunity Challenge:
Missy gets her leg immobilized while he challenge is described and taking place. There's no way she could do this one anyway. You must stand on 1 leg on a round peg which is attached to an arm that holds a tall vase. Your arms hold onto ropes with handles and you use them to steady yourself and make adjustments, all to keep the vase from falling. Last one with a vase intact wins immunity.
The wind picks up, as if scripted. Some have wondered if they purposefully hold off starting the challenge until something like that. My guess is no, but it does make for good TV. I'll save you most of the details. It comes down to Jon and Natalie. Jon is using a strategy of shifting lots of his weight onto the hand grips, and it's working well for him. Natalie seems to be employing the use of some great core strength to keep everything steady. The wind keeps gusting. Suddenly it takes a perfectly steady vase and slowly tips it off. Jon is out. Natalie wins immunity.
Scrambling Time:
Jaclyn has been worried that the others are going to pull something funny, but Jon is convinced she's just being paranoid. As viewers though, we know that Natalie has been waiting for revenge ever since Jon voted Jeremy out of the game. Sure enough, she is talking to Keith and Baylor to convince them of a plan to get rid of Jon. Keith just has to act like he's going home and has no true hope. This may be a stretch, but maybe he can put on a better show this time. The problem is that Missy would need to be on board. If Baylor can convince her, they have 4 votes and can split 2-2 in case Jon plays his idol. They talk to Missy. She's not on board. She gave her word to Jon, so she refuses to vote for him. Baylor and Natalie try to change her mind, but she's having nothing of it. If she turns on Jon then nobody would vote for her because of her dishonesty. Let's see how this turns out.
Tribal Council:
Keith gets his time to shine. Will he blow it? He says he tried to pierce the 5-alliance, but can't find any cracks. He issues the standard plea that he is a vote that people can use if they want. I think he slightly oversold it, but not too badly.
Standard conversations about trust. Plenty of great facial expressions from the jury. Jaclyn says she's worried people may flip on Jon sometime. Jon tells them all that he trusts the alliance of 5 and how can he expect them to trust him unless he trusts them. Baylor rolls her eyes a little bit. Did they convince Missy or not? Keith helps Missy to the voting station, then back.
Time to read the votes: Keith. Jaclyn. Keith. Jaclyn. Looks start being exchanged. Jon. Jon. It's a 2-2-2 tie. Jaclyn and Jon realize they've been had. In the revote, only Missy, Baylor, and Natalie will vote. Jon. Jon. No need to read the final vote. The 6th member of the jury is Jon. He stands up, hugs Jaclyn, walks past the others, says "nice move buddy" to Keith, forgets his torch, goes back for it, then Jeff snuffs his torch. Here's Jeff's wise quote: "Survivor is a tricky game. It can lull you into believing things that aren't real, like trust. And before you know it, you've forgotten the basic premise: Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. This game is wide open."
Fallout:
We have our final 5 for next week's 2-hour finale. Missy, Baylor, Jaclyn, Keith, Natalie. We see a preview of Natalie and Jaclyn butting heads, to no surprise, arguing over knowing Jon in the game as opposed to real life. Jaclyn saying to the camera that she didn't come out here 36 days to get voted out. Keith slapping his own face over and over again. Missy says she can't do anything. To find out how it ends, tune in to CBS on Wednesday December 17th from 8-10:05. Then you might as well keep watching through 11pm and enjoy the live reunion show with questions and answers, extra scenes, further commentary, and just to see what these 18 people look like now that they've returned to the real world for about 5 months. Oh, and we'll get a brief preview of next season just before 11pm.
Strategic Speculation:
Now for my favorite part. Time to figure out what will happen next, what are the best moves for people, what are the most likely moves for people, and what could screw things up.
Keith: He's lucky to still be here. Natalie saved him last week and used him this week. Will she be done with him? Quite possibly. He may have a new friend in Jaclyn though. For Keith, it's still do-or-die mode. He needs to try to win the immunity challenge to have any real shot at sticking around. Lots of jury votes would go his way if he makes it to the final 3.
Jaclyn: Since I mentioned her in Keith's section she'll go next. She just had everyone in the game turn on her. The only person who might even entertain working with her is Keith. But that's only 2 votes against the other 3. Her best hope would be to convince Missy & Baylor that Natalie has made too many big moves, to convince them that she made none - it was all Jon, and get them to vote Natalie out before her. Long shot, especially given an immunity idol that I'll talk about in Natalie's section. But speaking of immunity idols. Jon didn't play his. So where is it? All he left tribal with was a canteen. If it was in his pocket, it's gone. If it was in a bag, it is possible that Jaclyn now has posession of it. Not sure on the rules about this, but I would guess she may have it at her disposal. I'll talk more about those possibilities later.
Natalie: The obvious segueway here is that Natalie has a hidden immunity idol. It can only be played through the final 5, so it has to be used at the next tribal to have any value (and Jeff will say that too, so there's probably no funny business like what Tony pulled last season). So she is going to play it, probably on herself, but maybe on someone else depending on what sort of shenanigans get pulled. We'll be seeing her in the final 4. She thinks she can beat Missy and Baylor, and she's probably right, so it's likely she tries to make it to the end with them.
Baylor: She's in a good spot. Missy won't vote her out. Natalie has adopted her as a replacement sister so probably couldn't find it in her heart to backstab her. It looks good for a final 3 with her mom and Natalie, barring any curveballs.
Missy: Same story as Baylor. Same alliance, same chance of going further in the game. Only catch is her bum ankle, but she may not need immunity to advance anyway.
Possible Shenanigans: As I said before, Jaclyn may have Jon's hidden idol. This may be her only chance to advance to the finals. Let's assume she has it and is willing to play it strategically. Why strategically? If neither she nor Keith win immunity then it's a gamble who will be targeted first so she could play it on Keith. If one of them does win immunity, she has 2 choices: reveal the idol and force the other 3 to turn on each other, or keep it secret, hope they don't realize you now have it, and vote with Keith to send home whoever you want. The latter is the choice to make because it's too likely that Missy just sacrifices for her daughter and you wouldn't get any drama out of that anyway. Here's the problem though. Jaclyn now hates Natalie so would likely target her, and Jaclyn would assume that revealing the idol would lead Missy & Baylor to vote together against Natalie. But Natalie has her own idol and will play it since it's the final chance and both Missy & Baylor know this. The result? 3 votes for Keith or Jaclyn, which may disappear due to her hidden idol. 2 votes for Natalie which will vanish due to Natalie's idol. 3 people immune, because someone has individual immunity. No votes count. What happens? Who the hell knows - probably only Jeff Probst and a few other executive producer types. My guess would be a fire making challenge between Missy and Baylor. Maybe still no true drama since one may give it to the other, but a fantastic scenario to play out. And a tangled web.
Another Scenario:
I said maybe Jaclyn could try convincing Missy & Baylor that Natalie was trouble. But both of them know that Natalie has a hidden idol that will be played, so they know she's safe. They'll have to vote either Keith or Jaclyn at the next vote, so they'll stick with Natalie for now.
Most Likely Progression:
Based on all the talk above, your final 3 should be Missy, Natalie, and Baylor. Unless the Shenanigan scenario comes true, or the survivor of Keith and Jaclyn wins immunity at the final 4 challenge (a 1/3 chance since Missy likely won't compete), this is virtually guaranteed. So what does this mean for a final vote? Nobody would have a guaranteed vote since they wouldn't have loved ones on the jury. Problem here is that Missy and Baylor shouldn't argue against each other for votes. They should attempt to funnel all votes to one of them. Will this work with the jury? Maybe. The trick here is that if they jury doesn't hate them, it will work, and "they" will win through one of them getting enough votes. If the jury hates them, they already lost. I'd give Natalie a bit less than 1/3 chance of winning thanks to that. But she has made more strategic moves to orchestrate the end of the game, so that certianly plays to her favor.
My Prediction:
I'm giving the win to Natalie. She's got a great chance to make the final 3 and has a good story to tell. Then add in the liklihood that Missy and/or Baylor cry their eyes out over some question/attack from the jury and I'm even more likely to predict Natalie. Do, however, have a few grains of salt around. This is Survivor! Anything can still happen.
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Keys to Survivor San Juan del Sur Episodes 11-12
Setup:
I'd like to thank NASA for indirectly sponsoring this blog post. I had some time to do some writing early this week while I was waiting to watch the Orion test launch. We had a great 2 hours of Survivor this week to follow-up after Wes was voted out last week with 2 votes due to idols being played by both Jon and Keith. Reed and Alec show their displeasure with Keith ruining the plan by mentioning there was a plan. He doesn't see any problem because "how could they know what the plan was?" Reed and Alec are right. Just the fact that there was a plan he knew of and the others didn't means trouble if you're the others.
Reward Challenge #1:
Time for a traditional pecking-order revealing challenge. Questions are asked about people who made the merge this season. Get a question right and you get to chop someone's rope. 3 chops to a rope releases a rock that crushes a skull and removes you from the challenge. No surprise at all that Alec, Reed, and Keith are the 1st three out of the challenge, and it happened quick because the 1st 2 questions were well known to the remaining cast.
Question 1 - Who, other than Natalie, has a twin? Only Keith (and most of the viewing audience) didn't know it was Jeremy. Keith guessed Jaclyn (Jax in his writing). Why her? My guess is that he just hoped that of all people she would have a twin. Sorry Keith, but if Jaclyn had a twin you can bet they would be out here playing together to help out ratings. Anyway, Reed is knocked out quick and Alec starts taking hits.
Question 2 - Who owns and operates their own tanning salon? Everyone gets this one right, including me. It's Julie, the quitter. This round is enough to knock out Alec and Keith, although the cool effect of the red gel packet exploding when the skull is crushed didn't happen for Alec because the falling rock made a glancing blow and the skull just rolled off the stand. But now the 5 must turn on each other. Natalie again asks Jon who she should hit. A big discussion begins amongst the remaining contestants. Jeff asks if this is how the challenge is going to go - will they just put on a show to get to the winner they all decide on? They say yes. Jeff says they can just choose their winner and skip the show. They agree and decide that Missy wins.
Pecking Order Safe, Or Is It?:
The 5 avoid having to knock each other out of the challenge, so peace is kept. Jon even volunteers to go to Exile Island, avoiding any conflict there. But now Missy gets to choose 2 people to join her for the reward, which is an afternoon horseback ride culminating in barbeque and brownies at a resort where they will stay until morning. Missy chooses Baylor first and nobody is surprised. Now she must choose between Alec, Keith, Reed, Natalie, and Jaclyn, so it's really a choice between Natalie and Jaclyn. She decides to take Natalie. Jaclyn looks visibly upset. Jeff notices. The bottom 3 guys instantly play up to it being very telling. So the pecking order disclosure still ends up happening just a little later than expected. I'll revisit this in What-If #1 at the end.
Post Reward Challenge Rundown:
Jon goes to Exile. He gets a clue to a new idol. He goes out looking along the shore near any horizontal trees and fairly quickly adds an immunity idol to his possessions. He's thrilled to have some security back.
Reed, Alec, and Keith act nicer to Jaclyn than they ever have before. She notices and she's taking nicely to it since she got snubbed on the reward after Jon 'sacrificed' himself to go to Exile. They work to convince her that Missy, Baylor, and Natalie will be the final three unless something gets changed. Reed is playing hard and we wouldn't have it any other way. Alec is being nice, even flirting with Jaclyn, and she doesn't stop him. A plan is hatched to possibly switch things up and get Jaclyn and Jon to vote with the 3 boys.
The girls on the reward are fully enjoying this. Thankfully they are aware that this looks bad and they may need to do some damage control when they get back to camp. Missy chose Natalie because she's noticed that Baylor and Natalie are good friends. Natalie finally tells Missy that she found an idol with Baylor. Missy is proud of Baylor, and only slightly annoyed that it was kept secret from her until now.
When the girls get back the next day, they can tell that Jaclyn is being worked on and that it might be working. They see the flirting and Natalie is disgusted by it, saying that Jon would be mad.
Immunity Challenge #1:
Jon returns from Exile looking happy. The challenge is to balance a long paddle on a fulcrum and rolls balls along a groove on the handle, which includes a slight hill near the paddle itself, and rest the balls in slight depressions in the paddle. The first person to get all 6 balls resting in the depressions wins immunity. This quickly turns into a match between Jon and Keith. Jon is working it slow and steady. Keith is even slower, but making great progress. Jon gets to his 5th ball finally being placed when Keith lands #6 and wins immunity.
Pre-Tribal Scramble:
Jaclyn walks off with Jon to tell him what happened starting right after he left for Exile. As she talks, he is frustrated because he's been at Exile and just wants to spend some time with her and not be paranoid for a little while. This frustrates her because he isn't listening to her. He raised his voice, she shut down and walked away. Wonderful, now we have a fighting couple on Survivor. Everyone notices through the afternoon. Jon tries to talk to her but she won't have it. She finally gives in and goes to talk to him, but they end up bickering again and stop talking. The boys are frustrated because they want to work with Jon & Jaclyn, but it's hard to do that if they aren't even talking to each other. Reed doesn't want to work with Missy & Baylor. He suggests that they vote out Missy. Jon seems vaguely open to the idea because he winks at Reed while saying that won't be happening - the wink needed because Natalie was walking up to sit with them.
Tribal Council #1:
This winds up being a big therapy session for Jon & Jaclyn. Sounds like all the dirty laundry was aired and they were able to talk it all out. Reed mentions that it was tough to talk to them because of what was going on. Jeff notes that a real-life personal fight coming into the game complicates an already difficult game. Reed notes the result of the reward challenge and that Jon & Jaclyn should work with the 3 guys. Missy defends against this by noting they tried to cut Jon out 2 days ago and now Alec is flirting with Jaclyn. Jeff asks Jaclyn if that's true. She kind of denies it, but only kind of, and she turns red, so Jeff takes that as confirmation. Jon says he notices and it's a little weird. Baylor notes that Jaclyn & Jon have the benefit of choosing which group to vote with, as Jeff has noted that again Jon & Jaclyn are in the middle.
Vote #1:
Reed votes Missy, saying "This will likely be the only time I ever write your name down", meaning either she is getting voted out now, or more likely she makes it to the end and won't get Reed's vote for the win. The votes are read. It's unanimous other than Reed's vote for Missy. 10th person voted out and 4th member of the Jury is Reed.
Tribal Aftermath:
Alec finally feels alone. He has nobody to talk to after tribal council. He talks to Jon but Jon straightforwardly tells him he trusts his alliance and that Alec has no play and will find no crack. Jon is sounding way too comfortable. See What-If #2.
Reward Challenge #2:
Stand on a small block with only 1 foot touching. Hold a ball against a hanging piece of wood using a football shaped wooden piece with handles. When your ball drops, you're out. Winner gets a king-size bed back at camp and a meal of pasta and chicken parmesan with wine. Alec is out first, really early. Slowly more people drop out. Jon makes a few key saves to reposition his ball. It comes down to Natalie and Jaclyn and Natalie wins as Jaclyn's ball pops out. Natalie sends Alec to Exile without hesitation. She also gets to choose one person to share the reward with. She takes Jaclyn. She gets 1 more person and takes Jon. Jeff asks Missy how this feels being on the other side of this. Missy says it's rough because this one is in your face back at camp. Keith says he's used to it. Natalie tells the camera that she chose Jon because she wants to vote him out and wants to seem loyal and trustworthy.
Reward #2 Fallout:
Missy, Baylor, and Keith go to get water. The reward winners wonder if that is bad, but decide it's probably just that Keith wants to pitch something to them and they'll ignore him. Natalie can't stand being on this reward because Jon just keeps talking about wine and what he'll do with his million dollars.
Natalie talks to Baylor in the morning while Jon & Jaclyn are sleeping. She is sick of Jon and wants to vote him out. They plan to vote him out without telling Missy. Baylor is on board because she sees Jon as blinding Missy. Jon & Jaclyn keep sleeping even back in the standard shelter while everyone is collecting firewood. Jon is sensing a weird vibe now, justifiably. Jaclyn is paranoid that Missy will turn on them.
Immunity Challenge #2:
A return challenge from the past. Balance a pivoting table using a rope attached to a post on 1 side of the table. Go out and bring back wooden blocks to balance in a row on the table. If the table tips far enough that the blocks fall, you have to stop what you're doing and go back to reset the blocks. Block 1 is on the table then there are 3 blocks each at 3 stations further away from the table. Cutting to the chase, it comes down to Jon and Keith again. Keith is going faster, but sometimes needing to return and reset his blocks. Jon is slow and methodical and making safe progress. Ultimately, Jon wins by 1 block.
More Scrambling:
Natalie wanted to kick out Jon, but now she needs a plan B. Jon tells his group they have numbers enough to split the vote between Keith and Alec in case they have an idol. Keith would get 3 votes since he's the bigger immunity threat by a lot. Everyone sounds on board.
Natalie talks to Baylor about what to do now. They're back to the drawing board with not much time left. Alec works on Baylor, telling her nobody talks to her and she's his only friend and she's even going to vote him out. Baylor is touched by Alec showing real emotion for the first time. He might be just charming enough to last another 3 days. Baylor calls it a weird brother/sister or boyfriend/girlfriend sort of thing. The fact that she used the latter analogy means she's starting to play with emotions instead of tactics.
Natalie talks to Keith and tells him he's the more likely target due to immunity threat, but that she thinks he deserves to be here more than Alec. Keith tries to convince Natalie that taking out either Jon or Jaclyn, who are still just lying around, would be easier now using extra votes, than it would be later. Natalie has a revelation that she could flip this game. Her 'game flipping' plan is to switch her vote from Keith to Alec, have Keith vote for Alec, and thus ensure Alec goes home instead of Keith, keeping Keith's challenge ability in play for a further attempt at voting out Jon. See What-If #3 as I shake my head. Natalie tells Baylor but asks her to not tell anyone. Baylor likes Alec so she isn't so sure. Will she stay quiet? Will she also flip her vote to counter Natalie?
Tribal Council #2:
Keith says he's not good at all challenges. Natalie says it's more complicated than just voting for who is better at challenges. I'm surprised she was that honest, but where she's not planning to vote for Jon maybe the telegraph is OK. A rat then goes through the council area and disrupts things. Alec says he'd eat it, especially after being on Exile. Jon opens up about his dad's brain cancer and how that has affected him. His dad taught him about wine, and the wine glass during the bed reward brought this all to the forefront. Jeff asks if that is a good thing or if his opening up just makes him more of a threat? Keith agrees and says he's got a vote and someone can use his vote if they want. Natalie says there will be no surprises and the 5 will stick together tonight.
Vote #2:
Alec votes for Keith in an "either you or me" situation. Keith does the same. Jeff comes back with the votes. No idols are played. Kieth. Alec. Keith. Alec. Keith. Alec. 11th person voted out and the 5th person on the jury - Alec. Jon is shockfused (shocked and confused). Missy echoes his look. Jaclyn looks over, not quite as concerned. Keith winks to Wes, who winks back. Jon looks over to Natalie. Natalie looks over at Baylor. Neither of them look confused. Alec's torch is snuffed. Jon gets censored. Missy is still confused. Jaclyn looks confused at Jon. Jeff says "Well, based on the reactions after the vote, this tight alliance of 5 might not be so tight. Keith, that is good news for you." Natalie smiles as they grab their items to head back to camp.
Scenes From Our Next Episode:
Natalie is holding solid with Keith to get Jon voted out. During a likely reward challenge, while Keith, Jon, and Missy are tied together going through some obstacles, Missy falls hard into a stick. We see her crying. Survivor medical is there saying that to do an x-ray he'd have to pull Missy from the game. Missy and Baylor are crying. Missy says "This is so frustrating."
In Alec's final 30 seconds he's frustrated that he didn't make it further, but he kept fighting despite doing terrible at the challenges. He may not have won, but he made it further than his brother Drew, which he says is win for him.
What-Ifs, or Better Decisions That Could Have Been:
1) Everyone kept questioning whether it was a bad decision for Missy to take Natalie instead of Jaclyn on the reward. Sorry, but the bad decision that nobody is mentioning was to take BAYLOR instead of Jaclyn. The only way this ends up working safely is to take Natalie and Jaclyn with her and leave Baylor, her loved one, to give the cold shoulder to Reed, Alec, and Keith. But no, she had to play emotionally and take her daughter along with her. You always have to be playing the game, and she stopped playing to make an emotional decision to take Baylor on reward.
2) When Alec talks to Jon about the game, Jon needs to not blow him off. Telling him you won't work with him and you trust your alliance just opens the possibility that he works on someone else, which would make you the target. As long as your alliance knows you're just entertaining Alec and keeping his hopes alive, they should be fine with it.
3) Natalie realizes she can flip the game. I instantly knew she had realized that they can still vote out Jaclyn and that will break up this power couple that everyone keeps going to when in need of votes. This reduces Jon's power and leaves him vulnerable for next time. Nope, her big plan is to disobey her alliance and kick out the wrong bottom guy. She keeps Keith, but she'll only have 3 people to vote against Jon (Natalie, Keith, Baylor) which is at best a 3-3 vote. This would result in drawing rocks unless she uses her immunity idol to protect Keith (assuming he doesn't have immunity). Risky stuff. If you vote out Jaclyn (Keith and Alec would be on board, so that's 3 votes, and with you not voting for Keith it would be 3-2-2 and Jaclyn is gone), you truly flip the game and put Jon behind the 8-ball.
4) Why does Natalie want to go to the finals with Baylor and Missy? Sure they're friends, but this is Survivor, not Facebook. Think about this. What happens in that final 3 (assuming it will be a final 3)? My guess is that Missy tells the jury that she's played a good game, but Baylor has played a better one. Missy lays down and asks that anyone who wants to vote for Missy should actually vote for Baylor instead. Natalie would be go from having a 1/3 chance of winning to something much lower. The jury would have to hate both Missy and Baylor for Natalie to have any chance. Then again, maybe Natalie is fine with losing to a friend. We've seen that happen all the way back to season 2.
I'd like to thank NASA for indirectly sponsoring this blog post. I had some time to do some writing early this week while I was waiting to watch the Orion test launch. We had a great 2 hours of Survivor this week to follow-up after Wes was voted out last week with 2 votes due to idols being played by both Jon and Keith. Reed and Alec show their displeasure with Keith ruining the plan by mentioning there was a plan. He doesn't see any problem because "how could they know what the plan was?" Reed and Alec are right. Just the fact that there was a plan he knew of and the others didn't means trouble if you're the others.
Reward Challenge #1:
Time for a traditional pecking-order revealing challenge. Questions are asked about people who made the merge this season. Get a question right and you get to chop someone's rope. 3 chops to a rope releases a rock that crushes a skull and removes you from the challenge. No surprise at all that Alec, Reed, and Keith are the 1st three out of the challenge, and it happened quick because the 1st 2 questions were well known to the remaining cast.
Question 1 - Who, other than Natalie, has a twin? Only Keith (and most of the viewing audience) didn't know it was Jeremy. Keith guessed Jaclyn (Jax in his writing). Why her? My guess is that he just hoped that of all people she would have a twin. Sorry Keith, but if Jaclyn had a twin you can bet they would be out here playing together to help out ratings. Anyway, Reed is knocked out quick and Alec starts taking hits.
Question 2 - Who owns and operates their own tanning salon? Everyone gets this one right, including me. It's Julie, the quitter. This round is enough to knock out Alec and Keith, although the cool effect of the red gel packet exploding when the skull is crushed didn't happen for Alec because the falling rock made a glancing blow and the skull just rolled off the stand. But now the 5 must turn on each other. Natalie again asks Jon who she should hit. A big discussion begins amongst the remaining contestants. Jeff asks if this is how the challenge is going to go - will they just put on a show to get to the winner they all decide on? They say yes. Jeff says they can just choose their winner and skip the show. They agree and decide that Missy wins.
Pecking Order Safe, Or Is It?:
The 5 avoid having to knock each other out of the challenge, so peace is kept. Jon even volunteers to go to Exile Island, avoiding any conflict there. But now Missy gets to choose 2 people to join her for the reward, which is an afternoon horseback ride culminating in barbeque and brownies at a resort where they will stay until morning. Missy chooses Baylor first and nobody is surprised. Now she must choose between Alec, Keith, Reed, Natalie, and Jaclyn, so it's really a choice between Natalie and Jaclyn. She decides to take Natalie. Jaclyn looks visibly upset. Jeff notices. The bottom 3 guys instantly play up to it being very telling. So the pecking order disclosure still ends up happening just a little later than expected. I'll revisit this in What-If #1 at the end.
Post Reward Challenge Rundown:
Jon goes to Exile. He gets a clue to a new idol. He goes out looking along the shore near any horizontal trees and fairly quickly adds an immunity idol to his possessions. He's thrilled to have some security back.
Reed, Alec, and Keith act nicer to Jaclyn than they ever have before. She notices and she's taking nicely to it since she got snubbed on the reward after Jon 'sacrificed' himself to go to Exile. They work to convince her that Missy, Baylor, and Natalie will be the final three unless something gets changed. Reed is playing hard and we wouldn't have it any other way. Alec is being nice, even flirting with Jaclyn, and she doesn't stop him. A plan is hatched to possibly switch things up and get Jaclyn and Jon to vote with the 3 boys.
The girls on the reward are fully enjoying this. Thankfully they are aware that this looks bad and they may need to do some damage control when they get back to camp. Missy chose Natalie because she's noticed that Baylor and Natalie are good friends. Natalie finally tells Missy that she found an idol with Baylor. Missy is proud of Baylor, and only slightly annoyed that it was kept secret from her until now.
When the girls get back the next day, they can tell that Jaclyn is being worked on and that it might be working. They see the flirting and Natalie is disgusted by it, saying that Jon would be mad.
Immunity Challenge #1:
Jon returns from Exile looking happy. The challenge is to balance a long paddle on a fulcrum and rolls balls along a groove on the handle, which includes a slight hill near the paddle itself, and rest the balls in slight depressions in the paddle. The first person to get all 6 balls resting in the depressions wins immunity. This quickly turns into a match between Jon and Keith. Jon is working it slow and steady. Keith is even slower, but making great progress. Jon gets to his 5th ball finally being placed when Keith lands #6 and wins immunity.
Pre-Tribal Scramble:
Jaclyn walks off with Jon to tell him what happened starting right after he left for Exile. As she talks, he is frustrated because he's been at Exile and just wants to spend some time with her and not be paranoid for a little while. This frustrates her because he isn't listening to her. He raised his voice, she shut down and walked away. Wonderful, now we have a fighting couple on Survivor. Everyone notices through the afternoon. Jon tries to talk to her but she won't have it. She finally gives in and goes to talk to him, but they end up bickering again and stop talking. The boys are frustrated because they want to work with Jon & Jaclyn, but it's hard to do that if they aren't even talking to each other. Reed doesn't want to work with Missy & Baylor. He suggests that they vote out Missy. Jon seems vaguely open to the idea because he winks at Reed while saying that won't be happening - the wink needed because Natalie was walking up to sit with them.
Tribal Council #1:
This winds up being a big therapy session for Jon & Jaclyn. Sounds like all the dirty laundry was aired and they were able to talk it all out. Reed mentions that it was tough to talk to them because of what was going on. Jeff notes that a real-life personal fight coming into the game complicates an already difficult game. Reed notes the result of the reward challenge and that Jon & Jaclyn should work with the 3 guys. Missy defends against this by noting they tried to cut Jon out 2 days ago and now Alec is flirting with Jaclyn. Jeff asks Jaclyn if that's true. She kind of denies it, but only kind of, and she turns red, so Jeff takes that as confirmation. Jon says he notices and it's a little weird. Baylor notes that Jaclyn & Jon have the benefit of choosing which group to vote with, as Jeff has noted that again Jon & Jaclyn are in the middle.
Vote #1:
Reed votes Missy, saying "This will likely be the only time I ever write your name down", meaning either she is getting voted out now, or more likely she makes it to the end and won't get Reed's vote for the win. The votes are read. It's unanimous other than Reed's vote for Missy. 10th person voted out and 4th member of the Jury is Reed.
Tribal Aftermath:
Alec finally feels alone. He has nobody to talk to after tribal council. He talks to Jon but Jon straightforwardly tells him he trusts his alliance and that Alec has no play and will find no crack. Jon is sounding way too comfortable. See What-If #2.
Reward Challenge #2:
Stand on a small block with only 1 foot touching. Hold a ball against a hanging piece of wood using a football shaped wooden piece with handles. When your ball drops, you're out. Winner gets a king-size bed back at camp and a meal of pasta and chicken parmesan with wine. Alec is out first, really early. Slowly more people drop out. Jon makes a few key saves to reposition his ball. It comes down to Natalie and Jaclyn and Natalie wins as Jaclyn's ball pops out. Natalie sends Alec to Exile without hesitation. She also gets to choose one person to share the reward with. She takes Jaclyn. She gets 1 more person and takes Jon. Jeff asks Missy how this feels being on the other side of this. Missy says it's rough because this one is in your face back at camp. Keith says he's used to it. Natalie tells the camera that she chose Jon because she wants to vote him out and wants to seem loyal and trustworthy.
Reward #2 Fallout:
Missy, Baylor, and Keith go to get water. The reward winners wonder if that is bad, but decide it's probably just that Keith wants to pitch something to them and they'll ignore him. Natalie can't stand being on this reward because Jon just keeps talking about wine and what he'll do with his million dollars.
Natalie talks to Baylor in the morning while Jon & Jaclyn are sleeping. She is sick of Jon and wants to vote him out. They plan to vote him out without telling Missy. Baylor is on board because she sees Jon as blinding Missy. Jon & Jaclyn keep sleeping even back in the standard shelter while everyone is collecting firewood. Jon is sensing a weird vibe now, justifiably. Jaclyn is paranoid that Missy will turn on them.
Immunity Challenge #2:
A return challenge from the past. Balance a pivoting table using a rope attached to a post on 1 side of the table. Go out and bring back wooden blocks to balance in a row on the table. If the table tips far enough that the blocks fall, you have to stop what you're doing and go back to reset the blocks. Block 1 is on the table then there are 3 blocks each at 3 stations further away from the table. Cutting to the chase, it comes down to Jon and Keith again. Keith is going faster, but sometimes needing to return and reset his blocks. Jon is slow and methodical and making safe progress. Ultimately, Jon wins by 1 block.
More Scrambling:
Natalie wanted to kick out Jon, but now she needs a plan B. Jon tells his group they have numbers enough to split the vote between Keith and Alec in case they have an idol. Keith would get 3 votes since he's the bigger immunity threat by a lot. Everyone sounds on board.
Natalie talks to Baylor about what to do now. They're back to the drawing board with not much time left. Alec works on Baylor, telling her nobody talks to her and she's his only friend and she's even going to vote him out. Baylor is touched by Alec showing real emotion for the first time. He might be just charming enough to last another 3 days. Baylor calls it a weird brother/sister or boyfriend/girlfriend sort of thing. The fact that she used the latter analogy means she's starting to play with emotions instead of tactics.
Natalie talks to Keith and tells him he's the more likely target due to immunity threat, but that she thinks he deserves to be here more than Alec. Keith tries to convince Natalie that taking out either Jon or Jaclyn, who are still just lying around, would be easier now using extra votes, than it would be later. Natalie has a revelation that she could flip this game. Her 'game flipping' plan is to switch her vote from Keith to Alec, have Keith vote for Alec, and thus ensure Alec goes home instead of Keith, keeping Keith's challenge ability in play for a further attempt at voting out Jon. See What-If #3 as I shake my head. Natalie tells Baylor but asks her to not tell anyone. Baylor likes Alec so she isn't so sure. Will she stay quiet? Will she also flip her vote to counter Natalie?
Tribal Council #2:
Keith says he's not good at all challenges. Natalie says it's more complicated than just voting for who is better at challenges. I'm surprised she was that honest, but where she's not planning to vote for Jon maybe the telegraph is OK. A rat then goes through the council area and disrupts things. Alec says he'd eat it, especially after being on Exile. Jon opens up about his dad's brain cancer and how that has affected him. His dad taught him about wine, and the wine glass during the bed reward brought this all to the forefront. Jeff asks if that is a good thing or if his opening up just makes him more of a threat? Keith agrees and says he's got a vote and someone can use his vote if they want. Natalie says there will be no surprises and the 5 will stick together tonight.
Vote #2:
Alec votes for Keith in an "either you or me" situation. Keith does the same. Jeff comes back with the votes. No idols are played. Kieth. Alec. Keith. Alec. Keith. Alec. 11th person voted out and the 5th person on the jury - Alec. Jon is shockfused (shocked and confused). Missy echoes his look. Jaclyn looks over, not quite as concerned. Keith winks to Wes, who winks back. Jon looks over to Natalie. Natalie looks over at Baylor. Neither of them look confused. Alec's torch is snuffed. Jon gets censored. Missy is still confused. Jaclyn looks confused at Jon. Jeff says "Well, based on the reactions after the vote, this tight alliance of 5 might not be so tight. Keith, that is good news for you." Natalie smiles as they grab their items to head back to camp.
Scenes From Our Next Episode:
Natalie is holding solid with Keith to get Jon voted out. During a likely reward challenge, while Keith, Jon, and Missy are tied together going through some obstacles, Missy falls hard into a stick. We see her crying. Survivor medical is there saying that to do an x-ray he'd have to pull Missy from the game. Missy and Baylor are crying. Missy says "This is so frustrating."
In Alec's final 30 seconds he's frustrated that he didn't make it further, but he kept fighting despite doing terrible at the challenges. He may not have won, but he made it further than his brother Drew, which he says is win for him.
What-Ifs, or Better Decisions That Could Have Been:
1) Everyone kept questioning whether it was a bad decision for Missy to take Natalie instead of Jaclyn on the reward. Sorry, but the bad decision that nobody is mentioning was to take BAYLOR instead of Jaclyn. The only way this ends up working safely is to take Natalie and Jaclyn with her and leave Baylor, her loved one, to give the cold shoulder to Reed, Alec, and Keith. But no, she had to play emotionally and take her daughter along with her. You always have to be playing the game, and she stopped playing to make an emotional decision to take Baylor on reward.
2) When Alec talks to Jon about the game, Jon needs to not blow him off. Telling him you won't work with him and you trust your alliance just opens the possibility that he works on someone else, which would make you the target. As long as your alliance knows you're just entertaining Alec and keeping his hopes alive, they should be fine with it.
3) Natalie realizes she can flip the game. I instantly knew she had realized that they can still vote out Jaclyn and that will break up this power couple that everyone keeps going to when in need of votes. This reduces Jon's power and leaves him vulnerable for next time. Nope, her big plan is to disobey her alliance and kick out the wrong bottom guy. She keeps Keith, but she'll only have 3 people to vote against Jon (Natalie, Keith, Baylor) which is at best a 3-3 vote. This would result in drawing rocks unless she uses her immunity idol to protect Keith (assuming he doesn't have immunity). Risky stuff. If you vote out Jaclyn (Keith and Alec would be on board, so that's 3 votes, and with you not voting for Keith it would be 3-2-2 and Jaclyn is gone), you truly flip the game and put Jon behind the 8-ball.
4) Why does Natalie want to go to the finals with Baylor and Missy? Sure they're friends, but this is Survivor, not Facebook. Think about this. What happens in that final 3 (assuming it will be a final 3)? My guess is that Missy tells the jury that she's played a good game, but Baylor has played a better one. Missy lays down and asks that anyone who wants to vote for Missy should actually vote for Baylor instead. Natalie would be go from having a 1/3 chance of winning to something much lower. The jury would have to hate both Missy and Baylor for Natalie to have any chance. Then again, maybe Natalie is fine with losing to a friend. We've seen that happen all the way back to season 2.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Keys to Survivor San Juan del Sur Episode 10
Programming Note:
Tonight there are 2 hours of Survivor. 8pm-10pm. Double episode, double drama, double vote out. Anyone out there with old-school time-based recording methods be sure to update your settings tonight!
Intro/Grumbling:
OK, so last week doesn't seem so long ago since I reviewed it only days ago. But, I forgot one hugely important thing that I had meant to write (rant) about. How many episodes did we have to see #Blindside appear at the bottom of the screen? How many of those episodes were truly worthy of being called blindsides? What happened last week? Jeremy voted out in a major blindside - possibly the biggest one we'll get all season. What was conspicuously missing from the bottom of the screen? #Blindside. Why so liberal with it's use before (When Nadiya was voted out? Really? I argue you can't truly be blindsided on day 3.) but leave it out when it fits perfectly? Enough, on to my recap.
Back From Tribal:
Natalie is upset, rightly so. She gets the honor of being blindsided but still in the game. The others in her alliance tell her it was a late decision that was made while she was off talking to Jeremy. I don't buy it. She probably doesn't either, but it's technically believable. Keith/Wes/Alec are obviously thrilled with how that went down.
Reward Challenge:
Split into 2 teams by a schoolyard pick. One-by-one they swim out to a platform, climb it, jump off the other side to grab a key, swim out further, retrieve a set of floating puzzle pieces, and swim back to the start. Players 2-4 get the advantage of being tossed a life-ring which they can use to get pulled back to the start by those who have finished their legs. Once they're all back, you need to unlock your puzzle pieces by finding the only working key of the 4 you retrieved, then solve the puzzle.
Only 9 players, so 1 person wasn't picked and that was Keith this time. The schoolyard pick is meant to even out teams, so we'll see how they did. It ends up Baylor/Missy/Natalie/Wes vs Alec/Jon/Reed/Jaclyn. Things stay pretty close through each of the 4 people returning with pieces. Each team leads for a little bit. Toward the end Alec's team edges ahead. But the puzzle can be an equalizer. It's a vertical stacking puzzle, so it's less complicated, but remember how Coyopa had trouble with a similar puzzle earlier this season when you had to put together flags or banners in th right order. This challenge wasn't like that though, maybe because Jon/Reed/Jaclyn were from the original Hunahpu, where mistakes like that weren't made in challenges. They, and Alec, win. Baylor is sad because her mom hasn't won a reward yet. Reed decides to give up his reward for Missy because it's the right thing to do (actually so he can plot and scheme while they're gone). Wes is chosen to go to Exile Island. We never hear from him again. At least not until he returns for the immunity challenge a little bit later.
Reward Is A Favorite Pastime:
Go to a local village and hand out baseball supplies as goodwill toward the Nicaraguan community that is hosting them. Jon is thrilled because he loves kids. We hear again about Jaclyn's 1/4000 issue in which she has no uterus and can't have kids. Jon is fine with that though. He loves her and says they can adopt. Very 'public service announcement' style - all of that. Anyhow, the kids are all thrilled with the baseball supplies (bats, balls, hats, uniforms, etc.) because that's the #1 sport in their country. What would foreigners bring us? Basketball stuff? Football stuff? Not sure what's #1 here currently. Guess it would depend on where they were. Missy also seems recharged to be dealing with kids. Not sure whether I would or not. Guess I'd find out, if I'm lucky. Oh yeah, they also get to eat baseball food, defined as hotdogs, cheeseburgers, soda, ice cream. Good reward. Jon even went up to bat against the kids and amazingly got on base.
Scheming:
Reed does just what he needs to do. He's back at camp working new angles. He wants to get rid of Jon so he talks to Keith about it and they get the ball rolling. Meanwhile, Missy and Baylor use this time while the 2 guys are off talking to start looking for the hidden immunity idol. I hadn't caught that their clue from exile was to a new idol. I thought it was the same clue that was useless, but it must have been a new one hidden because John went home with his. I should know how these things work, but I have never fully figured it out. Gotta pay more attention I guess.
Long story short, they find it buried in the middle of camp. Importantly, Natalie finds it so she's the actual owner. They run off the the well and giggle. I assume they eventually go back and fill in their holes so people don't suspect anything.
Immunity Challenge:
Another one designed for smaller people with smaller frames and smaller feet, much to Dalton Ross' dismay. (Dalton, an official Survivor blogger with EW.com, is perpetually annoyed by challenges that favor someone based on size since you can't correct for it.) This one puts each person on a tiny ledge that backs up to a post with handles up top on both sides. They must put their heels on the ledge and hold both handles. If either foot comes down or either hand lets go, they're out. What could make this exciting to watch? Temptations! 7 minutes in, Jon reluctantly steps down for a plate of candy. He says he couldn't have won it anyway so he might as well eat. 30 minutes in we see 5 cookies and 2 glasses of milk, which Baylor and Jaclyn jump off for immediately. Missy drops out later without temptation. Wes comes down at the sight of a bowl of wings. I believe Keith and Alec miss out due to giving up. This leaves Reed and Natalie starting around 1 hour and 20 minutes. ... Time elapsed is now 3 hours. Others are sleeping. Natalie asks if there will be another temptation. Jeff is stunned. Someone would fight for 3 hours but be willing to give up? She specifically asks if there will be pizza, cookies, wings, and beer. Jeff walks off screen and returns with a custom plate and says it's hers if she wants it but she doesn't have to take it. She decides she really can't beat Reed so might as well eat rather than just lose. She steps down. Reed is declared the winner and steps down. They both struggle to even move. Natalie makes it to her food much later. Reed has the immunity idol brought to him.
Scrambling:
Reed now has a little wiggle room. He's trying to rally Wes/Keith/Alec to vote with him even though they voted for him last time. He gets the majority alliance to agree that Keith's potential idol is a threat so they need to split between Keith and Wes. But this split includes Reed and Alec, who will actually vote for Jon. Everyone is on board with the various plans. Jon is suspicious of Reed and thinks he's not voting with them. Will he act on his suspicions?
Tribal Craziness:
Before it even started, my guess is that this plan would work unless Keith said something stupid. Guess what he did? After Reed explained that Wes stepping out of the challenge makes it seem like he could be comfortable and so might be sharing an idol, Keith loudly says they need to stick to the plan. Suddenly everyone is whispering what to do because if Keith has a plan that someone else needs to stick to, that means there are plans that lots of people aren't aware of. All sorts of looks and whispers start happening. Mayhem like we've generally only seen when someone physically pulls out an idol when there are no other choices of who to get rid of.
The Votes Are In:
Wait, before the votes, Natalie tells Jon he should play his idol. He asks if she's sure. She says "it's up to you". She has a gut feeling this isn't going as planned. Jon decides to play it now to be sure. Keith, realizing this could end badly, decides he has to play his idol too and Wes tells him to use it on himself. So Jon and Keith are immune from votes.
Jon. Jon. Jon. Keith. Keith. Jon. Keith. None of these count. Just 2 votes left. Wes. Wes. 3rd person on the jury is Wes. Jeff predicts a wild finish to this season.
Next Time On ... Survivor:
The most important thing we see about the next episode is a reward challenge that always displays pecking orders. Get a question right, chop 1 of someone else's ropes (usually 3) to drop them out of the game. Last person standing wins reward. Nearly impossible to not result in the reveal of a pecking order. Therefore nearly guaranteed to cause chaos and get people to start rethinking their strategy moving forward. Keith, Reed, and Alec are sure to be out first, but who falls next and in what order could reshape the rest of the game. My guess is that Jaclyn or Missy will win this one.
What-If Explorations:
Here's my two cents on things that should have been done differently.
1) Reed wants to target Jon. Reed is counting on Keith. Reed knows that Jon would be the obvious target if they were plotting something. Reed should have targeted anyone else. Missy or Baylor or Jaclyn. Missy or Jaclyn are best. If Jon and Jaclyn have an idol they'll expect he was the target and play it on him. If Missy and Baylor have an idol they'll protect daughter before mother. Idols get played, Missy or Jaclyn go home and it's a new game.
2) Reed is smart. He would know based on the immunity challenge that Natalie is at the bottom of her alliance. You could pull her over and have a stronger ally than Keith. This tips the balance without needing to be sneaky. You have 5 votes at that point. You still don't vote for Jon for the same reason as above and because keeping him means you keep a target bigger than your own.
3) Jon/Jaclyn/Missy/Baylor/Natalie, the core alliance there, should have played the numbers better. 5 is the majority. They also should have targeted someone who isn't a threat to hold an idol. Decide on your own to put all 5 votes on Alec but tell Reed you're on board with the split vote. You find out who's with you and against you and you still vote out someone you don't trust. Whittle them down to just Keith and Wes before you start splitting votes that way you almost certainly flush the idol. (Almost certain because at that point Keith and Wes' best move is to let whoever isn't voted out to keep the idol and cause havoc during the next vote.)
I'd like to think that this sort of strategic thinking would make me great at Survivor. It sure seems like there were better decisions out there to be made. Maybe if you're there for 72 hours, instead of seeing 1 hour of spliced video, their moves make more sense.
OK! Tonight! Watch Survivor for 2 hours! This should really move the season along, as much as I never want it to end.
Tonight there are 2 hours of Survivor. 8pm-10pm. Double episode, double drama, double vote out. Anyone out there with old-school time-based recording methods be sure to update your settings tonight!
Intro/Grumbling:
OK, so last week doesn't seem so long ago since I reviewed it only days ago. But, I forgot one hugely important thing that I had meant to write (rant) about. How many episodes did we have to see #Blindside appear at the bottom of the screen? How many of those episodes were truly worthy of being called blindsides? What happened last week? Jeremy voted out in a major blindside - possibly the biggest one we'll get all season. What was conspicuously missing from the bottom of the screen? #Blindside. Why so liberal with it's use before (When Nadiya was voted out? Really? I argue you can't truly be blindsided on day 3.) but leave it out when it fits perfectly? Enough, on to my recap.
Back From Tribal:
Natalie is upset, rightly so. She gets the honor of being blindsided but still in the game. The others in her alliance tell her it was a late decision that was made while she was off talking to Jeremy. I don't buy it. She probably doesn't either, but it's technically believable. Keith/Wes/Alec are obviously thrilled with how that went down.
Reward Challenge:
Split into 2 teams by a schoolyard pick. One-by-one they swim out to a platform, climb it, jump off the other side to grab a key, swim out further, retrieve a set of floating puzzle pieces, and swim back to the start. Players 2-4 get the advantage of being tossed a life-ring which they can use to get pulled back to the start by those who have finished their legs. Once they're all back, you need to unlock your puzzle pieces by finding the only working key of the 4 you retrieved, then solve the puzzle.
Only 9 players, so 1 person wasn't picked and that was Keith this time. The schoolyard pick is meant to even out teams, so we'll see how they did. It ends up Baylor/Missy/Natalie/Wes vs Alec/Jon/Reed/Jaclyn. Things stay pretty close through each of the 4 people returning with pieces. Each team leads for a little bit. Toward the end Alec's team edges ahead. But the puzzle can be an equalizer. It's a vertical stacking puzzle, so it's less complicated, but remember how Coyopa had trouble with a similar puzzle earlier this season when you had to put together flags or banners in th right order. This challenge wasn't like that though, maybe because Jon/Reed/Jaclyn were from the original Hunahpu, where mistakes like that weren't made in challenges. They, and Alec, win. Baylor is sad because her mom hasn't won a reward yet. Reed decides to give up his reward for Missy because it's the right thing to do (actually so he can plot and scheme while they're gone). Wes is chosen to go to Exile Island. We never hear from him again. At least not until he returns for the immunity challenge a little bit later.
Reward Is A Favorite Pastime:
Go to a local village and hand out baseball supplies as goodwill toward the Nicaraguan community that is hosting them. Jon is thrilled because he loves kids. We hear again about Jaclyn's 1/4000 issue in which she has no uterus and can't have kids. Jon is fine with that though. He loves her and says they can adopt. Very 'public service announcement' style - all of that. Anyhow, the kids are all thrilled with the baseball supplies (bats, balls, hats, uniforms, etc.) because that's the #1 sport in their country. What would foreigners bring us? Basketball stuff? Football stuff? Not sure what's #1 here currently. Guess it would depend on where they were. Missy also seems recharged to be dealing with kids. Not sure whether I would or not. Guess I'd find out, if I'm lucky. Oh yeah, they also get to eat baseball food, defined as hotdogs, cheeseburgers, soda, ice cream. Good reward. Jon even went up to bat against the kids and amazingly got on base.
Scheming:
Reed does just what he needs to do. He's back at camp working new angles. He wants to get rid of Jon so he talks to Keith about it and they get the ball rolling. Meanwhile, Missy and Baylor use this time while the 2 guys are off talking to start looking for the hidden immunity idol. I hadn't caught that their clue from exile was to a new idol. I thought it was the same clue that was useless, but it must have been a new one hidden because John went home with his. I should know how these things work, but I have never fully figured it out. Gotta pay more attention I guess.
Long story short, they find it buried in the middle of camp. Importantly, Natalie finds it so she's the actual owner. They run off the the well and giggle. I assume they eventually go back and fill in their holes so people don't suspect anything.
Immunity Challenge:
Another one designed for smaller people with smaller frames and smaller feet, much to Dalton Ross' dismay. (Dalton, an official Survivor blogger with EW.com, is perpetually annoyed by challenges that favor someone based on size since you can't correct for it.) This one puts each person on a tiny ledge that backs up to a post with handles up top on both sides. They must put their heels on the ledge and hold both handles. If either foot comes down or either hand lets go, they're out. What could make this exciting to watch? Temptations! 7 minutes in, Jon reluctantly steps down for a plate of candy. He says he couldn't have won it anyway so he might as well eat. 30 minutes in we see 5 cookies and 2 glasses of milk, which Baylor and Jaclyn jump off for immediately. Missy drops out later without temptation. Wes comes down at the sight of a bowl of wings. I believe Keith and Alec miss out due to giving up. This leaves Reed and Natalie starting around 1 hour and 20 minutes. ... Time elapsed is now 3 hours. Others are sleeping. Natalie asks if there will be another temptation. Jeff is stunned. Someone would fight for 3 hours but be willing to give up? She specifically asks if there will be pizza, cookies, wings, and beer. Jeff walks off screen and returns with a custom plate and says it's hers if she wants it but she doesn't have to take it. She decides she really can't beat Reed so might as well eat rather than just lose. She steps down. Reed is declared the winner and steps down. They both struggle to even move. Natalie makes it to her food much later. Reed has the immunity idol brought to him.
Scrambling:
Reed now has a little wiggle room. He's trying to rally Wes/Keith/Alec to vote with him even though they voted for him last time. He gets the majority alliance to agree that Keith's potential idol is a threat so they need to split between Keith and Wes. But this split includes Reed and Alec, who will actually vote for Jon. Everyone is on board with the various plans. Jon is suspicious of Reed and thinks he's not voting with them. Will he act on his suspicions?
Tribal Craziness:
Before it even started, my guess is that this plan would work unless Keith said something stupid. Guess what he did? After Reed explained that Wes stepping out of the challenge makes it seem like he could be comfortable and so might be sharing an idol, Keith loudly says they need to stick to the plan. Suddenly everyone is whispering what to do because if Keith has a plan that someone else needs to stick to, that means there are plans that lots of people aren't aware of. All sorts of looks and whispers start happening. Mayhem like we've generally only seen when someone physically pulls out an idol when there are no other choices of who to get rid of.
The Votes Are In:
Wait, before the votes, Natalie tells Jon he should play his idol. He asks if she's sure. She says "it's up to you". She has a gut feeling this isn't going as planned. Jon decides to play it now to be sure. Keith, realizing this could end badly, decides he has to play his idol too and Wes tells him to use it on himself. So Jon and Keith are immune from votes.
Jon. Jon. Jon. Keith. Keith. Jon. Keith. None of these count. Just 2 votes left. Wes. Wes. 3rd person on the jury is Wes. Jeff predicts a wild finish to this season.
Next Time On ... Survivor:
The most important thing we see about the next episode is a reward challenge that always displays pecking orders. Get a question right, chop 1 of someone else's ropes (usually 3) to drop them out of the game. Last person standing wins reward. Nearly impossible to not result in the reveal of a pecking order. Therefore nearly guaranteed to cause chaos and get people to start rethinking their strategy moving forward. Keith, Reed, and Alec are sure to be out first, but who falls next and in what order could reshape the rest of the game. My guess is that Jaclyn or Missy will win this one.
What-If Explorations:
Here's my two cents on things that should have been done differently.
1) Reed wants to target Jon. Reed is counting on Keith. Reed knows that Jon would be the obvious target if they were plotting something. Reed should have targeted anyone else. Missy or Baylor or Jaclyn. Missy or Jaclyn are best. If Jon and Jaclyn have an idol they'll expect he was the target and play it on him. If Missy and Baylor have an idol they'll protect daughter before mother. Idols get played, Missy or Jaclyn go home and it's a new game.
2) Reed is smart. He would know based on the immunity challenge that Natalie is at the bottom of her alliance. You could pull her over and have a stronger ally than Keith. This tips the balance without needing to be sneaky. You have 5 votes at that point. You still don't vote for Jon for the same reason as above and because keeping him means you keep a target bigger than your own.
3) Jon/Jaclyn/Missy/Baylor/Natalie, the core alliance there, should have played the numbers better. 5 is the majority. They also should have targeted someone who isn't a threat to hold an idol. Decide on your own to put all 5 votes on Alec but tell Reed you're on board with the split vote. You find out who's with you and against you and you still vote out someone you don't trust. Whittle them down to just Keith and Wes before you start splitting votes that way you almost certainly flush the idol. (Almost certain because at that point Keith and Wes' best move is to let whoever isn't voted out to keep the idol and cause havoc during the next vote.)
I'd like to think that this sort of strategic thinking would make me great at Survivor. It sure seems like there were better decisions out there to be made. Maybe if you're there for 72 hours, instead of seeing 1 hour of spliced video, their moves make more sense.
OK! Tonight! Watch Survivor for 2 hours! This should really move the season along, as much as I never want it to end.
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