Keys to Survivor Worlds Apart Ep09

Survivor: Worlds Apart Episode 09 quick recap:

Reward Challenge:  A schoolyard pick results in 2 teams of five.  Each person must individually swim out and pass a series of floating obstacles (climb up and slide down, cross a submerged net bridge, cross a balance beam) and get to a final platform.  When someone finishes, the next person on their team begins until all 5 are at the final platform.  Then a floating grappling hook is used to retrieve 5 floating rings.
Team1 is Mike, Shirin, Tyler, Dan, Sierra.
Team 2 is Jenn, Joe, Rodney, Carolyn, Will.
Lots of hard falls.  Team 2 starts retrieving rings first, but Team 1 is victorious.

Reward:  A chocolate free-for-all.  They had all the Snickers, Twix, M&M, and Dove chocolate they wanted.  There was also popcorn and drinks.  Blatant product placement, but I'll all for it.  This was a great reward.

Back at camp:  Jenn is bummed that she hasn't been on reward yet.  Joe is taking it better, but knows he needs to win immunity.  Rodney does some impressions of Mike and Dan.  His Mike impression is spot on and was very entertaining.  His Dan impression wasn't as good, but the others present were loving it all.
Jenn later tells Joe that she doesn't want to play anymore, but won't quit.  She says that if she wins immunity she'll give it to Joe to cause drama and maybe she'll get voted out like she wants.  Joe is thrilled as long as he can believe her since that would double his chances to advance.

Immunity Challenge:  Stand in what looks like a door frame.  Each one is adjusted to the height of the individual.  Hold a tall block of wood between your head and the top of the frame (roughly 4" diameter octogon that is about 12" tall).
Elimination order:  Carolyn, Will, Shirin, Dan, Rodney, Sierra, Joe ...
This is the first individual challenge that Joe will not win.
Final 3 comes down to a No Collar, a Blue Collar, and a White Collar.
Mike drops out next, then after about 32 minutes total time Jenn drops out.  Tyler wins immunity.

Tribal Council:  First some more background.  Everyone was supposed to watch Joe continuously at camp after the immunity challenge.  Joe asks to talk to Dan so they walk off.  Dan confirms that he can't possibly convince anyone to save Joe, then leaves him.  Joe runs off and disappears.  The jewelry maker has collected supplies over time and is now making a fake immunity idol.  It looks pretty good, but is nothing like the ones we've seen so far.  He attempts to offer it to Mike in a trade to keep him in the game.  Mike will only consider it if he gets the idol before the vote.

As they arrive at tribal, Joe secretly hands the fake idol to Mike.  During tribal, Mike asks if Jeff can confirm whether this idol is legitimate.  Jeff can not do this until after the vote.  With that, they vote.  The plan is to split between Joe & Jenn in case there is an idol.  Joe wants to stay, so he knows he has to vote for Jenn.  Jenn wants to go, so doesn't vote for Joe.  Shirin, the superfan, proves she actually can do basic math and figured this all out before any of it actually happens.  She can potentially choose who goes home with her vote.

The vote ends up 5-4-1.  Jenn voted for Dan.  Joe voted for Jenn.  The majority split between Joe & Jenn.  Shirin voted for Joe, choosing to continue playing with Jenn and hoping this decision would make a friend out of Mike.

Best Moves:
Best #1:  Joe constructs a convincing hidden immunity idol.

Best #2:  Mike stays skeptical of this hidden immunity idol, even after it is handed to him.

Best #3:  Rodney shows a goofy human side to himself by doing impersonations of Mike & Dan.

Worst Moves:
Worst #1:  Joe chooses the wrong person to try to sway with his fake hidden idol.  Mike knows what two have looked like this season.  Targeting a swing vote might have been a better strategy even if they already know what they look like too.  Not that Joe could have known any of this.

Worst #2:  Rodney shows the potential crack between him and his alliance by doing impersonations of Mike & Dan.  This gives anybody on the outside a place to focus their attacks.

Worst #3:  Shirin keeps Jenn over Joe.  Last season, Natalie proved that sometimes the best move is keeping a threat (keeping Keith around).  This season may have been another key example of that working.  Keep Joe, so that he's the obvious target of the large alliance, instead of being a 50/50 chance with Jenn.  This improves your chances for the next 3 days and gives time for cracks to expand in the large alliance.

Top 4 Prospects: Last week I listed Carolyn, Tyler, Mike, and Sierra.  No change to the people or the order, just updated reasoning.
1) Carolyn - former White Collar and Nagarote.  She hopes she isn't waiting too long to make a big move.  She still has a hidden immunity idol - one of two in the game.

2) Tyler - former White Collar and Escameca.  Alliance with Carolyn buys him this spot.

3) Mike - former Blue Collar and Escameca.  Has a hidden idol and keeps proving that he's paying close attention to lots of details.

4) Sierra - former Blue Collar and Nagarote.  Not a target of anyone yet, and not likely to become one in the next few days.

Bottom 4 Prospects: Last week I listed Joe, Jenn, Shirin, and Dan.  Joe was voted out.  Here's my new bottom.
9) Jenn - former No Collar and Nagarote.  She's the last one left who is not partially tied to the majority alliance.

8) Shirin - former White Collar and Nagarote.  If Jenn wins immunity, I would be shocked if Shirin isn't kicked to the curb.

7) Dan - former Blue Collar and Escameca.  I assume this only happens if Rodney decides it is time to break apart from his Blue colleagues.

6) Will - former No Collar and Nagarote.  I could see a scenario where he is dispatched before Shirin, purely because he is more likable than she is, so he could garner more jury votes if he somehow made it to the end.