Sunday, October 26, 2014

Keys to Survivor SJdS Episode 5

Fiddlesticks:
That's my ultimate reaction to Episode 5.  Great episode, but still - fiddlesticks.  This will make more sense by the end.

Reward? Think again. Mix-up time:
As the teams gather at the reward arena, they get the news we were teased with last week.  Drop your buffs.  We're making new teams.  Each team is given a set of concealed buffs that are split evenly between Coyopa and Hunahpu colors.  So we will have 4 original Hunahpu and 3 original Coyopa on each tribe.

Let's cut to the chase.  Here are the new teams - originals first, followed by new members.
Coyopa:  Dale, Jaclyn, and Baylor, joined by Kelley, Jon, Missy, and Keith.
Hunahpu:  Reed, Jeremy, Natalie, and Julie, joined by Wes, Josh, and Alec.

Coyopa ends up with 3 couples and 7th-wheel Keith.
Hunahpu ends up with 1 couple (Josh and Reed) and a bunch of individuals.
The only couple still split up are Keith and Wes, who swapped places with each other.

Food Issues and Social Issues:
For the new Hunahpu, the drama was food issues.  As it turns out, they had been way overeating and running their rice supply until it was just about gone in 12 days.  Jeff posits that this could explain their dominance in challenges.  Reed asks Jeff if they can do some sort of trade for more rice.  Jeff agrees, but says he'll stop by the day after tribal, and warns them that it will be a steep trade.

For the new Coyopa, food is plentiful, but there is some social drama.  If I may go all teenage-girl on this...and believe me, it sounds better if you read it as if it's being spoken by a gossiping teenage-girl.
Keith is worried because he's the only single.  Jon and Jaclyn are constantly kissing, making it look like a honeymoon or something.  Baylor notices, and they notice her noticing, but she says it's fine, even though she sounds jealous since she's a single 20 year old.  Baylor and Dale never really got along since they have both voted for each other.  Missy doesn't like Dale because Dale has targeted Baylor.  Kelley doesn't like Baylor because Balyor had targeted Dale.  Dale also doesn't like Missy because she's cooking too much rice and he's an old stubborn guy who usually speaks his mind.  Missy doesn't like that Dale is speaking his mind.  This all equates to Jon and Jaclyn being in between the two couples, along with Keith.

Immunity Challenge:
The team must dig up a bag of keys.  Then use 1 key to open a gate so that everyone on the team can crawl through a soggy mud pit under low wooden beams.  Once all are through the mud, the team shakes a tall wobbly tower to get 20 sandbags to fall out.  When all the sandbags have fallen out, collect them and have 2 people start tossing them onto a wobbly 2-foot diameter hanging target.  The first team to get 10 sandbags on the target wins immunity.

Hunahpu, though newly formed, starts out in the lead.  They make it through the mud first, and get their sandbags first.  Coyopa is not only behind, but also has trouble getting their sandbags to fall down because they tried for smaller shaking movements instead of big swinging movements.  Hunahpu gets all 10 of their bags onto the target before Coyopa can even start.

For the record (mainly for anyone who reads this either way after it happens or who didn't see the episosde), after winning immunity and after Coyopa heads out is when Reed asks Jeff about trading for more rice.  So they get to share their last 2-3 handfulls either tonight or tomorrow, then Jeff will stop by to "negotiate".  Seeing as how Hunahpu won most of the rewards, I'm going to guess that Jeff will want just about everything they have won.  This really stings for the former Coyopa members who walked into this terrible situation.

Tribal Council:
I'm skipping straight into tribal because I already talked about Coyopa's social drama.  So if you read that section above, you know the main story leading into the vote.

Basically, there are 3 teams and Keith.  2 teams can't stand each other, so the 3rd team - Jon & Jaclyn - get to decide which team they want to advance with.  Since Keith is just 1 vote, he really doesn't factor into any of this.  Jon & Jaclyn will side with another couple, which makes a 4 vote majority.  At least it makes tonight easy for Keith.  That is, unless he gets targeted as being the odd man out.  Good thing for him though that he has a hidden immunity idol, and thanks to the tribal mix-up his previous talk of Jeremy having it seem to have faded from memory.

There is, however, minor fear that Kelley went looking for an idol.  So Baylor and Missy think that votes may need to be split, at least if they end up with the numbers.  But then, Keith's vote could become a factor if he wants it to.

Cutting to the chase, the 1st 6 votes are:  2 for Baylor, 2 for Dale, and 2 for Kelley.  The final vote sends Kelley out of the game.  Here's the fiddlesticks.  She was my day-1 pick to win this season.  So much for those bragging rights.  So anyway, you'd think that Keith must have been the deciding vote.  Makes sense given the break-down.  But wait.  During Kelley's 30-second goodbye at the end, we see that he and Jon voted for Dale, while Jaclyn, Baylor, and Missy voted for Kelley.  I guess he must have been on the same page, because if he wasn't then their whole plan could have backfired.

What If, Version 1:
So the split vote was to protect against if Kelley had found an idol.  They were betting that it would have been played to save Dale, and with 3 votes on Kelley she'd go home instead of it being a tie vote.  But what if Keith had decided to play differently.  Knowing he was vote #2 against Dale, he could have voted for Baylor, forcing a 3-3-1 tie.  Then, if Kelley had the idol and had played it for herself, it would be Baylor going home and they'd have an even power situation of 3 vs. 3 as they move forward.  But, he didn't do that, and Kelley didn't have an idol so even if he did, the revote would have sent Kelley packing anyway.

What If, Version 2:
This one is much better, which is why I saved it.  Jon and Jaclyn were in the middle, needing to pick sides based on what could get them further in the game, but had limited time to make that decision and really know who they could or couldn't trust.  Each had seen half of the other 2 couples, but they were finally seeing how they work together, how they act, how they strategize.  What if they agreed to vote with one team, but then worked with the other team to vote out Keith instead?  Keith is an older guy who doesn't bring much to challenges.  A few of them saw him throw Jeremy under the bus, saying he had the immunity idol.  Why not take out Keith now and save the true decision about which team to join for next time?  This gives you more time to feel out both couples, who you know aren't about to make nice with each other, so you're guaranteed to still be the important swing votes.  I think this would have been a much better strategy, as long as Keith didn't catch on and play his idol.

Hey, Survivor Casting.
Yes, you.  If you're reading this, that last paragraph is exactly why you should choose me for this show.  I'll talk through all these possible decisions instead of just taking a simple choice.  That's kind of what I do - over analyze things that require decisions.

Editor's Note:
I fully understand Dale's reaction to Missy cooking too much rice.  My dad is similarly stubborn and willing to speak his mind.  Given that, I honestly believe that how Dale was reacting was indeed holding back.  It's easy to watch and say "Dale, just zip it.  Don't let it bother you, not outloud.  Complain about it behind their backs to other people if you must, but pretend to ignore it while it is happening."  But he can't do it.  That's not him.  Sadly for him, it helped to get his daughter kicked out of the game because he seemed like the more obvious target.  Kelley being voted out is effectively an unintended consequence of the existence of hidden immunity idols.  Without the, Dale would have been gone in a heartbeat.

Next Week:
I don't even remember the previews for episode 6.  But here's my 2 cents.  Coyopa kept Dale instead of Kelley.  They already, and still, couldn't win an immunity challenge.  They'll be visiting Jeff again on Wednesday.  Thankfully, due to poor rice rationing, we'll get to see Jeff interact with Hunahpu at the top of the episode.

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