Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Keys to Survivor Cambodia Ep05

Tribal Reference Guide at Episode 05 Start
Ta Keo       Bayon        Angkor
Terry        Kimmi       
Abi-Maria
Kelley       Stephen      Woo
Joe          Monica       Tasha
Ciera        Jeremy       Andrew
Kass         Kelly
Keith        Spencer


Name colors indicate original tribe.  Complain in the comments if you have color blindness and my color scheme isn't working for you.
Kelley has a hidden immunity idol from a clue at the original Ta Keo camp.
Jeremy has a hidden immunity idol from a clue at the new Bayon camp.
(Last Names that are often used: Kelly Wiglesworth, Terry Deitz, Kelley Wentworth, Andrew Savage, Stephen Fishbach)

Episode 05 recap (10/21/2015)
In the reward challenge, the tribes roll a barrel with a tribe-mate inside.  The one inside the barrel gets out at 3 stations and collects bags of balls.  At the finish, one person rolls the balls into a skee-ball like setup, trying to get 6 balls into different goal divots.  Angkor doesn’t come in last so manages to win some comfort including a tarp.

At the immunity challenge the tribes must race up a structure one at a time and launch sandbags at 5 targets using a large slingshot.  Each person has to go up at least once and fire once, but can swap out after that.  A team must swap players after a successful hit on a target.  Angkor doesn’t lose again, thanks to Stephen (Bayon) accidentally hitting one of Ankgor’s targets.  New Bayon goes to tribal.

Spencer or Kelly is in trouble.  Monica and Kimmi have been butting heads though and Monica suggested a potential future all-women alliance to Kimmi, who then tattles on her to the others.  Kimmi/Jeremy/Stephen ponder voting Monica out instead. Monica is BLINDSIDED 3-2-1.

Was the right person voted out?
I hate to say it, but yes.  Monica made a big mistake with how she pitched her ideas to Kimmi.  First, she and Kimmi aren’t agreeing in general, so that conversation was risky.  Second, she made a case for being a potential enemy - willing to turn against former allies.  The better way would have been to pitch the men in the game as potential villains who might form an all-male alliance that you might need to defend against.  Create common enemies.  Don’t turn yourself into one.

Monday, November 23, 2015

Keys to Survivor Cambodia Ep04

Tribal Reference Guide at Episode 04 Start
Ta Keo       Bayon        Angkor
Terry        Kimmi        Jeff
Kelley       Stephen      Abi-Maria
Joe          Monica       Woo
Ciera        Jeremy      
Tasha
Kass         Kelly        Andrew
Keith        Spencer


Name colors indicate original tribe.  Complain in the comments if you have color blindness and my color scheme isn't working for you.
Kelley has a hidden immunity idol from a clue at the original Ta Keo camp.
Jeremy has a hidden immunity idol from a clue at the new Bayon camp.
(Last Names that are often used: Kelly Wiglesworth, Jeff Varner, Terry
Deitz, Kelley Wentworth, Andrew Savage, Stephen Fishbach)

Episode 04 Recap (10/14/15)
For reward, each team chose 1 person to compete.  Jeremy, Andrew, and Terry were chosen to run out into the water, retrieve 3 large bean bags in sequence, and use a see-saw to launch them into a net 15 feet above their heads.  Andrew was victorious for Angkor and they finally get some food to eat.

The immunity challenge was close.  A caller directs his blindfolded tribe-mates to retrieve large tetris-like blocks before the whole team then solves a 3D cube puzzle with all of the blocks.  Ultimately, Angkor was spent and couldn’t finish so had to go to tribal council again.

It sounds like it will be Jeff or Woo in a trust vs strength vote.  Somehow Abi is convinced to kick out Jeff and keep Woo despite all the times Woo has voted for Abi.  Woo is very thankful.  Jeff is voted out 4-1.

Was the right person voted out?
Again, if you are Tasha and Andrew then yes.  You keep Woo around so that Abi has someone she will dislike way more than you, instead of a situation where she and Jeff could stand together.  Additionally, Jeff was doing lots of scheming, so it was probably great in the long run to remove him from play.

Sunday, November 15, 2015

Keys to Survivor Cambodia Ep03

Tribal Reference Guide just after Episode 03 Start
(after the tribe switch that kicked off this episode)
Ta Keo       Bayon        Angkor
Terry        Kimmi        Jeff
Kelley       Stephen      Abi-Maria
Joe          Monica       Woo
Ciera        Jeremy       Peih-Gee
Kass         Kelly        Tasha
Keith        Spencer      Andrew


Name colors indicate original tribe.  Complain in the comments if you have color blindness and my color scheme isn't working for you.
Kelley has a hidden immunity idol.
(Last Names that are often used: Kelly Wiglesworth, Jeff Varner, Terry
Deitz, Kelley Wentworth, Andrew Savage, Stephen Fishbach)

Episode 03 Recap (10/7/15)
We start things off with a tribe mix-up.  It's the first time in history that the number of tribes has increased during a season.  Ta Keo and Bayon each have 2 old Ta Keo and 4 old Bayon. Angkor has 4 old Ta Keo and 2 old Bayon.  Jeremy finds a clue to the hidden immunity idol that tells him where it will be located at the next immunity challenge. He then finds the idol during that immunity challenge and without anyone noticing.

Ta Keo and Bayon win immunity and Angkor loses.  Jeff tries to signal something to one of the other teams, but Tasha catches him and starts referring to him as a rat.  Peih-Gee and Abi still don’t get along.  Tasha and Andrew, despite being outnumbered, capitalize on the cracks in the former Ta Keo and side with Abi and Jeff to vote out Peih-Gee 4-2.  Woo and Peih-Gee were the 2 votes for Abi.

Was the right person voted out?
This is a tough one, but yes - if you’re Tasha & Andrew.  Peih-Gee and Abi-Maria can’t stand each other.  If you vote out Peih-Gee you risk the other 3 former tribe mates banding together.  By keeping Abi you gain an ally, albeit an unstable one, and you maintain a wedge between the others.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Keys to Survivor Cambodia Ep02

Tribal Reference Guide at Episode 02 Start
Ta Keo       Bayon
Kelly        Kimmi
Jeff         Andrew
Terry        Stephen
Peih-Gee     Monica
Abi-Maria    Ciera
Spencer      Kass
Woo          Tasha
Kelley       Jeremy
Shirin       Keith
             Joe


Kelley has a hidden immunity idol.
(Last Names that are often used: Kelly Wiglesworth, Jeff Varner, Terry Deitz, Kelley Wentworth, Andrew Savage, Stephen Fishbach)

Episode 02 Recap (9/30/2015)
For Reward/Immunity, the teams raced up and down tall A-frames, carrying ropes, then used the ropes to pull a heavy box of puzzle pieces.  Then 2 players on each tribe solve a puzzle.  Bayon wins the immunity challenge too.

Abi and Peih-Gee have a big argument, mostly because the just don't get along.  Abi feels attacked, and is hurt that Shirin doesn't come to her rescue, especially given Shirin's experience on her season of Survivor when Mike came to her rescue when others were attacking her.  This time, Terry comes to Abi's rescue, elevating him from the bottom of the tribe.

Spencer and Shirin end up on bottom due to all of this.  The majority split their vote to avoid any surprise idols and Shirin is voted out 5-4.

Was the right person voted out?
If you’re everyone else on that tribe, yes.  Shirin isn’t a physical threat, but she has incredible knowledge about Survivor and could easily use that store of knowledge against everyone else along the way.  It was the right move assuming they realize that Abi will continue to drive wedges between people and could derail their game at a moment's notice.

Monday, November 2, 2015

Keys to Survivor Cambodia Ep01

Welcome to my blog for Survivor: Cambodia - Second Chances
This season I am tribe reference guides, my opinion about the decision of which person to be voted out, and sometimes brief recaps.

Tribal Reference Guide at Episode Start
Ta Keo
Kelly - Borneo (1)
Jeff - The Australian Outback (2)
Terry - Panama (12)
Peih-Gee - China (15)
Abi-Maria - Philippines (25)
Vytas - Blood vs. Water (27)
Spencer - Cagayan (28)
Woo - Cagayan (28)
Kelley - San Juan del Sur (29)
Shirin - Worlds Apart (30)

Bayon
Kimmi - The Australian Outback (2)
Andrew - Pearl Islands (7)
Stephen - Tocantins (18)
Monica - Samoa (19)
Ciera - Blood vs. Water (27)
Kass - Cagayan (28)
Tasha - Cagayan (28)
Jeremy - San Juan del Sur (29)
Keith - San Juan del Sur (29)
Joe - Worlds Apart (30)

Seasons with added descriptions
Panama = Exile Island
Cagayan = Brains vs. Brawn vs. Beauty
San Juan del Sur = Blood vs. Water (all new players)
Worlds Apart = White Collar vs. Blue Collar vs. No Collar

Episode 01 recap (9/23/2015)
The first challenge ends when a member of one team gets to the bag of rice.  Kelly swims ahead to launch her team to victory.  Kelley (the other one, note the different spelling) finds a clue to the hidden immunity idol, then finds the idol at the immunity challenge.  Joe effectively wins immunity for Bayon with his excellent stick and twine skills to retrieve a key.  Jeff Varner flips on the old-school alliance to vote with the new-school.  Vytas is voted out 6-4.

Was the right person voted out?
Returning players don't tend to remove weak players first.  Vytas is a social threat so I can't say it was a bad move.  However, voting out Abi would have resulted in a stronger tribe with more unity.  First vote out often seems arbitrary though.

Saturday, May 30, 2015

Keys to Survivor Worlds Apart Finale

From Final 5 to Final 3 - Here's How It Happened:
Below is my quick recap of the major points in the Survivor Finale.  It's safe to say that pretty much everything I would have predicted would happen did NOT.  I guess that's part of why I enjoy watching so much.  When you think you know everything, the castaways keep surprising you.

Reward Challenge:
Loved ones are present.  Winner gets their loved one for a day and an advantage at the immunity challenge.  Untie knots to release bags of tiles.  Untie the bags of tiles and slide them across a table through a goal (sort of like air hockey).  Once all the tiles are through, take them to the final table by balancing them in groups of your choosing and crossing a few see-saws.  Once they are all there, match up symbols printed on the back of the tiles in pairs.  3 tiles don't have a match.  Flip those over and use them as the 3 numbers for a combination lock (could be in any order).  Will starts this challenge strong, but ends up falling behind as usual.  In the end it was a race between Sierra and Mike.  Both are trying combinations.  On the 3rd number combo, Mike wins.  Everyone who loves cheering for the underdog rejoices since Mike is now the huge underdog with everyone wanting to vote him out.

Reward:
Mike's mom gets to join them at camp for a day and night.  Everyone seems to like her.  She and Mike go off to talk alone.  They find out later that the advantage is that they will go to the immunity challenge early and practice.  The challenge is to navigate a maze blindfolded to find medallions in each corner (West, South, East, North).  Once you have them all, you can find the immunity necklace in another part of the maze.  Mike gets to try it out, still blindfolded, but with the guidance of his mom who can see it all.  They get to do this for 30 minutes, and they make some progress, but it isn't as easy as they were hoping - they don't complete it even with mom's help.  They worry this won't have helped.

Immunity Challenge #1:
See the previous section for a description of the challenge.  Will Mike's practice help him out?  He finds a medallion first, but others are finding one soon after.  When he finds the 2nd one, Rodney was nearby and on Rodney's way back, he tells everyone else how to get to that one.  Mike is being ganged up on - and for good reason.  He slowly pulls into a lead and is looking for the necklace while the others are still collecting their medallions.  Moments later, Mike wins immunity.

Tribal #1:
Mike has to try playing both sides.  Rodney and Will seem to be a team.  Carolyn and Sierra seem to be a team.  Mike tries convincing the girls that the guys are going to vote one of them out.  Rondey swears on his dead sister that he'll vote with Mike to get Sierra out.  Let's see how things went down.  Sierra is voted out 4-1 and becomes the 7th member of the jury.

Immunity Challenge #2:
This is a big one.  Untie 20 knots, race up about 4 flights of stairs, grab a key, go down a water slide, work through a multi-level obstacle course, use the key to unlock a back of puzzle pieces.  Repeat the stages of climbing, key, slide, unlock, for 2 more keys.  Once you have all the puzzle pieces, untie the bags and start constructing a vertical lighthouse puzzle where each piece is a cylinder with a pattern of pegs and hols in each side.  Mike and Carolyn are first up the tower.  Rodney is last, but makes up some time climbing the stairs.  Eventually Carolyn and Will slow down the most and it turns into a race between Mike and Rodney.  Rodney has trouble untying his bags of puzzle pieces, then has trouble making any sense of the puzzle.  Meanwhile Carolyn has made it to the puzzle stage and is trying to solve it faster than Mike.  Sadly for her alliance, she is unsuccessful.  Mike wins immunity again.  Again, fans of the underdog rejoice.

Tribal #2:
Leading up to this tribal council, Rodney and Will want to vote out Carolyn.  Carolyn wants to vote out Rodney.  Mike only has to decide if he wants to remove Carolyn or force a tie vote.  He claims he wants the tie because all of the Blue Collars turned their back on him.  He tells Carolyn this plan and advises her to go into the woods to practice making fire.  She does this, for 2 hours, but can't get one started.  Welcome to tribal council.  Mike follows through.  Rodney isn't happy.  We go to the fire making challenge.  Remember Cook Islands where Becky & Sundra had to make fire to be in the final 3 with Yul & Ozzy?  This was kinda like that.  We get some elapsed time a few times.  15 minutes.  30 minutes.  Each of them breaks their flint at least once and is given a replacement.  Finally about 55 minutes in, Carolyn gets a small flame.  Moments later Rodney does too.  Now it's a race to see who can burn through their string.  Rodney uses all of his coconut husk and tries tossing sticks in with no plan.  Carolyn immediately builds a pyramid structure to help the flames catch on and climb higher.  Carolyn's strategy works out - she wins and is going into the finals.

Final Tribal Council:
We don't see the finalists give opening statements.  Not sure if it happened and that part was cut for time, or if they're doing it differently now.  Not too many bitter jury members this year.  Most of them seem to be counting Will out, except Rodney.  Shirin is glad that Mike came to her rescue a few weeks ago, but still needs him to fight for the win.  Jenn tells everyone to not be stupid and just vote for the person who obviously deserves it the most - Mike in her opinion.  Dan is still mad at Mike for what he did at the auction.  Ultimately Mike apologizes, and Dan sees it as sincere.  We're left with just enough doubt about who will get the most votes.  We are shown a single vote for each of the finalists (Rodney for Will, Jenn for Mike, and Sierra for Carolyn), then we skip ahead to the live reunion portion of the show to read the votes.

Here's the order they were read:  Mike. Will. Carolyn. Mike. Mike. Mike.  No need to read any more.  Your winner of Survivor Worlds Apart is Mike (6-1-1).

Best Moves:
1)  Mike wins all 3 challenges this episode.  He needed each of these wins more than anyone else did, and that motivation worked for him.

2)  Carolyn practices making fire.  Sure she was told to do it, but she actually did go practice and that may have been the difference.

3)  The jury members give a good performance and let themselves be open to a change of heart based on how things go down at the final tribal council.

Worst Moves:
1)  Sierra is targeted first, instead of Rodney or Will.  She may have been a bigger threat to win immunity, but Rodney and Will sure seemed to be a voting block.  Plus, she was probably the best bet to beat Mike in the next immunity challenge.

2)  Sierra makes the case that she should be kept because she is a good competitor.  Always should ask yourself if everyone else really thinks that the best should be at the end, or if they'll go for the more obvious choice of someone who can be easily beaten.  Her argument only works if she specifically points out that she is their hope to beat Mike at immunity.

3)  Mike forces a tie to potentially bring Carolyn to the finals instead of Rodney.  This was dumb.  It worked out in the end, but you just brought a better competitor and gave her a chance to shine in the fire making challenge.

4)  Speaking of making fire.  Carolyn and Rodney both stink for apparently having never worked at making fire.  You'd think being out there for 39 days would be enough time to learn.  Heck, I haven't ever been called back about my auditions, but I have flint and I've learned how to make a fire - in less than 55 minutes at that.

5)  Carolyn makes for yet another poor performance in the final tribal council.  We have these more than I would like.  Maybe she did better but the editing made her look worse than she was.  She had a really good story for why she should win.  I can't help but think if I were to be lucky enough to be selected and made it to the finals, I would have a killer argument for why I should win.  Survivor is a game that should only be won by players who play through to the bitter end.  The game isn't over until Jeff says "I'll go get the votes."

6)  Will flat out says he is glad to have made the final 3 because now the game is over and he can relax.  Man, that was your problem throughout this season.  You were always too busy relaxing and not busy enough trying to win this game.  The game is not over until the final vote has been cast.

Top player:
Last week, the top 2 were Will and Sierra, figuring that they would both make the finals.  This week the top place is obvious.  It has to go to the winner.

1)  Mike.  He won.  Enough said.

Bottom player:
Last week, my bottom 2 were Mike and Rodney, figuring that Mike would get voted out and Rodney would get blindsided in a twist.  Well I was half right.  Rodney did get the axe in a surprising way.

5)  Will.  That's right.  He made the finals, but not because he was better than Sierra or Rodney.  Specifically because he was worse than them actually.  I hate to have to hand out a bottom spot, but there usually is one person deserving of it and this time it's Will.

Any final comments for this season?
What do you think.  Did you enjoy Survivor Worlds Apart, or are you glad it's over?  Enjoy my blog posts?  Think I should write more, or less, or take a completely different approach next time?  (In the past I have done recap poems, and detailed recaps with answers to potential questions people might have had while watching.)  Maybe next season you'll be stuck with whatever I decide on anyway, but this is your chance to provide input.  Speaking of next season, we'll have a cast of returning players that fans were allowed to vote on (picking 20 out of 32 nominees).  I'll have a post about this sometime before the season premier in September, so don't forget at me.  Until then, this is Denny Keyes signing off.  Oh, and plotting my next audition video.  Season 33 or 34, here I come!

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Keys to Survivor Worlds Apart Ep13

Penultimate Episode of the Season:
This is almost the end.  As the episode starts there are 6 castaways left.  By the end, we'll vote one out and be left with a final five.  These five will duke it out on Wednesday May 20th until a final three face off in the final tribal council.  But before all that, here are the highlights of last episode.

Reward Challenge:
Randomly chosen teams of 3 compete in a multi-part challenge.  There are two or three initial parts that each team gets through without trouble.  The final step is to take many wooden blocks, decide which ones have a letter on them and bring them along to use in a puzzle where the team must spell out a 6-word phrase.  Team A is Dan, Rodney, and Sierra.  Team B is Carolyn, Mike, and Will.  Both teams are working on the puzzle, trying to make words out of what they have for letters.  "Reward" "WITH" "WILL" "FIX".  Both teams realize that they should stand up their puzzle pieces and face them away from the other team to prevent cheating.  Time elapses.  30 minutes in and neither team has solved it yet.  Jeff starts subtly giving clues.  More time elapses.  60 minutes in, Jeff is hinting more.  Sierra isn't listening to Jeff, but Mike was paying attention.  Suddenly, Team B thinks they have it.  "A REWARD WITH ALL THE FIXIN'S".  They win!

Rodney puts another guilt trip on Carolyn.  Jeff plays out the pros and cons.  Carolyn decides to keep reward for herself instead of switching places with Rodney.

Reward:
Mike, Carolyn, and Will enjoy a helicopter ride that ends with a delicious feast.  Mike proposes that this be the final 3 in the game.  In Will's confessional, he indicates that Mike is still public enemy number one, so that probably won't be happening.  Carolyn seems to think that working with Mike might be something to consider.

Meanwhile, back at camp, Rodney is so upset at still not going on reward that he proposes the final 3 be himself, Dan, and Sierra.  Dan also finds some unknown fruit that looks like a melon.  The three of them enjoy their own little reward.

Immunity Challenge:
Use a grappling hook to retrieve 3 bags at different distances in the sand ahead of you.  Once you have all 3 bags, open up one and use the ball inside to navigate a hanging labrynth style game using two ropes with handles (this one has been used before).  Sierra, Dan, and Mike are the only players to get to the puzzle with time to work on it.  Dan tries to catch up to Mike, but makes too many fast dangerous moves.  Sierra does catch up to Mike and they're both at the final part of the puzzle, just trying to land their ball in the center recession.  In a close finish, Mike gets immunity.

Tribal:
The story going in to tribal is that Dan and Carolyn are both being brought up as possibilities.  Dan thinks that Carolyn is going home.  Carolyn thinks that Dan is going home.  Mike is trying to insert his own commentary since he is safe.  He's trying to get Dan thinking that his team is voting him out.  He's trying to convince Sierra and Carolyn that the other 3 guys are planning to vote one of them out - using the fact that Dan & Rodney are sleeping in the shelter as "proof" that they feel too safe.  Plus several people are thinking about Dan's advantage and if that will affect their decisions.

On to the voting.  We aren't shown anyone's votes since this one is so up in the air.  The votes are in.  Jeff says "I'll go tally the votes."  Dan decides to play his extra vote, saying he'd rather go down swinging.  Dan goes in and makes an additional vote.  Jeff then actually goes to tally the votes.  When he comes back, Carolyn decides that maybe she shouldn't hold onto her advantage, so she plays her hidden immunity idol, saying "I don't want to go home tonight."  The votes come in - 5 for Carolyn, none of which count, and 2 for Dan.  Dan is the 13th person voted out and the 6th member of the jury.

Best Moves:
1)  Carolyn plays her hidden immunity idol and stays in the game.  Excellent timing.

2)  Mike plants seeds of doubt in Carolyn and Dan, telling them their alliance is against them.  He might be right in both cases.

3)  Sierra sides with Rodney and Will, possibly setting herself up for an upset win next week.

Worst Moves:
1)  Dan plays his advantage.  My opinion is that this play actually caused him to be voted out by inciting Carolyn to play her idol.  From all the discussions I've had about this episode, there's only one scenario where this would have made sense, and that's if Carolyn & Sierra had voted with Mike and were expecting to intentionally cause a tie vote.  But seeing as how ties are extraordinarily rare these days, that wasn't likely.  If 3 or 4 people were voting with Mike, then an extra vote wouldn't help.  If he wanted to go down swinging, he needed to save it for one of the next 2 votes where it could either force a tie or maybe save him if he'd been willing to vote with Mike.

2)  Some might say that Carolyn not giving up reward to Rodney was a bad move, but I can't get behind that.  Sure, it resulted in him getting mad enough to be willing to vote her out, but switching with him could have just put that much more of a target on her back from the other contestants as she'd look like a nicer player trying to sway jury votes.  The reward was the right move.  Get some food, make possible connections, maybe even get a clue to another advantage or idol.

Top 2 players:
Last week, the top 2 were Carolyn and Will.  This week I'm trying to choose 2 of the people in the final 3.

1)  Will.  Nobody is voting out Will.  In challenges he performs worse than the stand-in challenge runners who test it out ahead of time.  Socially he started out likable, but with 3 former No Collar tribe mates and the personally attacked Shirin on the jury, he is no threat to beat anyone.  Obviously I'm not endorsing him for the win, but I'm sure we'll get the chance to see how Shirin will handle him in the final tribal council and it may be the most interesting jury interation.

2)  Sierra.  My guess is that once it is down to 4 players, we could see a tie vote where Rodney & Will vote together against Sierra and either Mike or Carolyn.  If it comes down to a fire-making challenge, we've seen Rodney fail over and over again in challenges, so I give the tie-breaker to Sierra.

Bottom 2 players:
Last week, my bottom 2 were Dan and Mike.  Dan was voted out.  This week, I'm trying to choose the 2 people who won't be in the finals.

5)  Mike.  I'd actually really like to see Mike make it to the end because at this point he seems like he's the biggest fan favorite left, so him winning would be good for the franchise.  But Will said it best last week - Mike is public enemy number one.  The only person left who might consider voting with Mike is Carolyn, but that's not enough to save him.  His only chance at the finals is to win both immunity challenges.  It's possible, just improbable.
4)  Rodney.  He's my best guess at who gets taken out in a surprise twist or if "the alliance" has to turn on themselves again.  If Mike goes first, but then Carolyn wins immunity, someone has to go and my money would be on Rodney.

Predicted Winner:
Here it is.  Based on everything up through now, who do I think walks away with $1 Million this Wednesday at about 10:05 EDT?
CAROLYN
I've had her in my top list of players every week other than this last week.  The only reason she's not part of my top 2 is because I'm going for the most likely finalists.  Carolyn is a slight underdog due to numbers right now.  I'm sticking with her because in the game of Survivor, even though you shouldn't trust anyone, you have to trust someone.  I'm trusting Carolyn to win the big one on Wednesday.

Let Me Have It - Comment:
What do you think of my final 2 and my predicted winner?  Can Carolyn make it through to argue her case?  Am I way off and will Sierra pull off an unlikely victory?  Am I really way off and somehow Rodney or Will argue their way to a million dollars?

Who do you think will win?  Who do you WANT to win?